The central economic conference was held in 2021: steady growth returned to the focus of economic work. In 2022, "China's economic development is facing the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation", and the policy level refined the difficulties faced by the economy. Steady growth has become the primary task. Steady growth is to stabilize the overall economic market and is related to social stability, which echoes the work meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee. The economic conference emphasized the necessary support of policies to the economy, and the conference emphasized the coordination of fiscal policy and monetary policy. Fiscal policy and monetary policy should be coordinated and linked, that is, monetary policy should be loose and fiscal policy should be active. At the level of monetary policy, quantitative policy should be adopted to cooperate with the implementation of government bond issuance and infrastructure investment plan.
The central bank's working meeting in 2022: the monetary policy will be flexible and moderate. In 2022, China's monetary policy will return to "flexible and moderate", and the growth rate of social financing and loans will rise at the same time. This upward trend will appear in the first quarter, and the loans may "make a good start" again in the first quarter.
The central bank's monetary policy is relatively loose (1) RRR reduction: on December 6, the central bank announced that it would reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on December 15, 2021, which is the second RRR reduction by the central bank in the year; (2) Interest rate cut: the quoted loan market interest rate (LPR) announced on December 20 was flat for 19 consecutive months, and the LPR was reduced by 5bps to 3.80% in December, which was in line with market expectations; (3) Decline in refinancing interest rate: after the announcement of overall RRR reduction on December 6, the people's Bank of China issued another announcement and decided to reduce the refinancing interest rate for agricultural and small financial institutions by 25bps on December 7; (4) Raise the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio: be cautious about RMB appreciation.
Real estate risks continued to release. Real estate enterprises entered the period of merger. The central bank and the cbcirc issued a document to encourage banks to carry out M & a loan business in a stable and orderly manner, focusing on supporting high-quality real estate enterprises to merge and acquire high-quality projects of high-quality real estate enterprises and difficult large-scale real estate enterprises. Carry out structural rescue for real estate enterprises and help real estate enterprises "save themselves" in accordance with the principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability". The policy oriented probability still only supports the steady development of the real estate industry to meet rigid needs and reasonable improvement needs.
Meeting of the State Council: continue to support small enterprises and economic growth (1) on December 15, the national Standing Committee updated the financial instruments supporting small, medium and micro enterprises to reduce the financing cost of small, medium and micro enterprises. (2) December 19 national standing committee meeting: continuation of some preferential policies on individual income tax. (3) January 10 national standing committee meeting: expanding effective investment. Targeted expansion of final consumption and effective investment, withstanding the new downward pressure on the economy and ensuring the smooth operation of the economy in the first quarter and the first half of the year. (4) On January 5, the State Council held a symposium on tax reduction and fee reduction. The intensity of tax reduction and fee reduction in 2022 may exceed that in 2021, that is, it may exceed 1 trillion.
SASAC: central enterprises clean up the arrears of small and medium-sized enterprises and the green transformation plan of central enterprises (1) state owned enterprises such as central enterprises shall not abuse their market dominant position to occupy the funds of small and medium-sized enterprises. In principle, commercial acceptance bills and supply chain debt certificates for more than 6 months will not be issued. The document proposes that all central enterprises should support and cooperate with upstream and downstream small and medium-sized enterprises to carry out supply chain financing, and high interest arbitrage is strictly prohibited. (2) We will adjust the stock structure of state-owned capital and accelerate the clean-up and disposal of assets and enterprises that do not meet the requirements of green and low-carbon standards. For projects with high energy consumption and high emission, equal or reduced replacement shall be strictly implemented. Shut down high energy consumption and high emission projects that do not meet the requirements of relevant policies, and strictly and reasonably control the growth of coal consumption.
