In 2021, China's GDP grew by 8.1%, with an average growth of 5.1% in two years.
Both industry and service industries were repaired in the fourth quarter
From the production and supply side, in the fourth quarter, with the in-depth implementation of the coal power supply guarantee policy, the industrial growth rate picked up steadily. From the two-year compound growth rate of industrial added value, the industrial growth rate rebounded from 5.0% in September to 5.8% in December, and the utilization rate of industrial capacity also increased. Looking forward to the future, it is expected that industrial orders will remain prosperous. At the same time, in the future, with the marginal decline of upstream prices, the industry may continue to repair.
In terms of service industry, the added value of the tertiary industry in the fourth quarter increased by an average of 5.6% in two years, an increase of 0.8 percentage points over the third quarter. After the rectification and standardization of the education and training industry and the Internet industry in the third quarter, the internal structure of the service industry was optimized and significantly improved in the fourth quarter.
The demand side shows differentiation
From the demand side, foreign demand continued the high boom of the first three quarters in the fourth quarter, and the two-year compound growth rate of exports was close to 20%. In terms of consumption, the retail situation in October and November was improved compared with that in the third quarter, but in December, affected by the epidemic, the consumption fell again. On the whole, the consumption performance in the fourth quarter was still relatively low.
In the fourth quarter, the investment structure of fixed assets showed differentiation: the tightening of financing of real estate enterprises in the early stage led to the decline of land transactions and the decline of residents' willingness to buy houses. Both real estate investment and sales continued the downturn since the third quarter. In terms of infrastructure investment, although the issuance of new local special bonds continued in large quantities in the fourth quarter, the growth rate of infrastructure investment continued to decline until it rebounded slightly in December due to project commencement and other reasons. Manufacturing investment continued the repair trend, and the growth rate increased month by month.
The unemployment rate rose month on month
In December, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.1%, up 0.2 percentage points from September. The short-term pressure of early economic growth was shown in the employment data.
It is estimated that the economic growth rate will be around 5% in 2022
Looking forward to the macro economy in 2022, the current policy signal of "stable growth" is strong, which is expected to pull both ends of supply and demand. In 2022, the quota of special bonds will be issued in advance. At the same time, major projects in many places across the country have been started intensively recently. It is expected that the growth rate of infrastructure investment will rise significantly from the first quarter; The growth rate of real estate investment may reach a low point in the first quarter, and then stabilize and recover.
It is estimated that the annual GDP growth rate in 2022 will be around 5%, and the year-on-year growth rate from the first quarter to the fourth quarter may reach 4.8%, 4.8%, 5.3% and 5% respectively.
Risk tips
The economy fluctuated more than expected.
