Exports slowed down slightly, but still maintained a high boom, and imports fell. In December, the import and export volume was US $586.5 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 20.3%. Among them, the export volume was US $340.5 billion. Under the high base, the year-on-year growth rate continued to slow down to 20.9%, but it still maintained a year-on-year growth rate of more than 20%, with a month-on-month growth rate of 4.8%, down 3.6 percentage points from the previous month, but the overall export remained high; Imports amounted to US $246 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, the previous value increased by 31.7%, and the import volume fell back from the import growth rate. The trade surplus reached US $94.46 billion, up US $22.75 billion from the previous month. Throughout the year, China's trade surplus was US $676.43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.1%. Annual exports increased by 29.9% year-on-year to US $3.36 trillion; Imports increased by 30.1% year-on-year to US $2.69 trillion.
The global impact of the epidemic continues to be superimposed, and the price transmission effect still exists to promote exports to maintain a high boom, but the weakening of festival factors and the production repair of some Southeast Asian countries restrict the export of some products to a certain extent. Exports in December showed three characteristics: first, the global epidemic repeatedly led to the continuous substitution effect of China's exports. In December, the export of epidemic related products maintained a growth trend, and the year-on-year growth of textiles, including masks, and medical instruments and devices were 16.21% and 16.38% respectively; Second, although the effect of price transmission to the terminal has weakened, it is still in a high growth range. In November, the export price increased by 7.5% year-on-year, down 0.6 percentage points from October, but still maintained a relatively high growth rate; Third, with the continuous recovery of production capacity in Southeast Asian countries and the early spring festival in 2022, factories and enterprises in China's textile and garment industry may shut down and take holidays in advance, coupled with the weakening demand for European and American festivals, the year-on-year growth of labor-intensive products continued to slow down, including luggage, clothing and furniture, with a year-on-year growth of 24.19%, 14.50% and - 3.98% respectively, It fell by 4.75, 8.32 and 5.87 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month. From a subregional perspective, exports to the United States this month rebounded by 15.94 percentage points over the previous month, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.21%. The base effect superimposed on the continuous repair of US manufacturing production supported China's exports to the United States to maintain a high boom. In December, the PMI of us Markit manufacturing industry was 58.7%, and the production continued to be in the expansion range, helping China's exports to maintain a high growth rate. Affected by the gradual decline of holiday consumer demand, the growth rate of exports to the EU continued to decline, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.82 percentage points to 25.65% compared with the previous month. The growth rate of exports to Japan dropped to single digits, 8.56%, and the entrepot trade through Hong Kong decreased, with a year-on-year growth of 11.51%, down 7.94 percentage points from the previous month; Exports to ASEAN fell somewhat, with a year-on-year increase of 12%, still maintaining a high double-digit growth rate.
Affected by the relatively weak repair of domestic demand, the recovery of shipping costs and the reduction of imports of some bulk commodities, imports fell somewhat. In December 2021, the epidemic situation in some areas repeatedly impacted domestic demand, and the negative factors such as insufficient market confidence in the real estate industry and relatively low infrastructure have not been significantly improved. At present, the relatively weak domestic demand has restrained the growth rate of imports. At the same time, the rise of shipping costs also dragged down the import growth. The average value of Baltic dry bulk index and export container freight index in December rose 51.66 and 24.69 to 2832.11 and 3265.41 respectively compared with November. From the perspective of imported products, the import structure of bulk commodities has been differentiated. In the context of the decline in international crude oil prices, the demand for crude oil imports increased in consideration of maintaining the stability of the supply chain and diluting costs. In December, the crude oil import volume and import volume rose by 27.81 percentage points and 34.19 percentage points to 19.94% and 114.24% respectively compared with the previous month. Affected by the recovery of iron ore prices, the average value of mypic imported iron ore composite index rose to 102.17 in December, 90.65 in the previous month, and returned to more than 100. The year-on-year growth rate of iron ore and its concentrate import quantity and import amount this month changed from positive to negative, the import quantity decreased by 11.03% and the import amount decreased by 24.82% year-on-year, which is one of the main drag items of import decline. Affected by the high base, the import of high-tech and electromechanical industries fell to 16.36% and 6.77% year-on-year, down 3.6 and 9.03 percentage points respectively from the previous month. In terms of countries, due to repeated epidemics, higher base and holidays, imports to major countries fell in December. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of imports to the United States fell 18.75 percentage points to 3.3% compared with the previous month, and the year-on-year growth rate of imports to the European Union and Japan changed from positive to negative, falling to 2.91% and 3.87% respectively. The import growth rate to South Korea and ASEAN decreased by 4.80 and 13.18 percentage points to 23.77% and 22.53% respectively compared with the previous month, still maintaining a high import growth rate.
Looking forward to 2022, China's exports may still benefit from the global mismatch of production and demand caused by the impact of the epidemic, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic as a whole. However, the uncertainty of continuing high export growth has increased, and imports will maintain a certain resilience when the margin of domestic demand recovers. In 2022, the global epidemic situation and the world economic situation tend to be complex. Although the virus continues to mutate, the severe rate may have decreased significantly. Therefore, Europe, America and other countries may open their doors and accelerate the recovery of domestic production. Superimposed with high base factors, it is expected that the export growth rate may decline significantly in 2022, but the recovery of global demand will also bring some support to China's exports, There is no need to be overly pessimistic about exports in 2022. In terms of imports, the gradual return of some commodity prices to normal will drag on imports, but the domestic demand or marginal recovery under the steady growth policy will support the import growth to a certain extent.
