Macroeconomic
Social finance data has warmed up, CPI and PPI have both fallen, and the ppi-cpi scissors difference is expected to continue to converge. In December, the growth rates of M1 and M2 picked up, and the social finance data picked up, but there was still a gap from expectations, insufficient domestic demand and poor credit structure. In December, CPI and PPI both fell, and inflation pressure was eased. Among them, CPI food items and non food items weakened simultaneously, which dragged down CPI. With the advent of the Spring Festival consumption season, food prices are expected to be supported, oil prices are also rising with the control of the epidemic and the warming of the service industry, and the year-on-year growth rate of CPI will show a moderate growth trend as a whole. The pressure on the price of means of production still exists, driving the year-on-year growth rate of PPI to fall sharply, and the ppi-cpi scissors difference fell to 8.8%. Subsequently, as industrial products continue to decline, PPI continues to fall, and the scissors difference is expected to continue to converge.
Policy focus
The US inflation rate has reached a new high, and the US austerity process is expected to be further accelerated. In December, US CPI reached the largest year-on-year increase since June 1982, and PPI reached the highest level since the data was recorded in 2010. However, due to the decline of gasoline and food prices, PPI increased by only 0.2% month on month, a new low since November 2020. With continued high inflation, the US austerity process is expected to accelerate further.
At the executive meeting of the State Council, Premier Li Keqiang once again stressed the prominent position of steady growth, accelerated counter cyclical regulation, and emphasized the expansion of final consumption and effective investment. On January 10, Premier Li Keqiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to deploy and accelerate the implementation of the outline of the 14th five year plan. The meeting reiterated the importance of steady growth, accelerated counter cyclical adjustment and promoted the implementation of major projects.
General asset market
In the stock market, A-Shares fell in an all-round way due to the fact that the social finance was not as good as expected, the effect of credit relief was poor, and the real economy was particularly depressed; In terms of currency, the net capital investment this week was 10 billion yuan, the capital surface was relatively stable, and most of the market interest rates rose slightly; In the bond market, the yields of Chinese and American Treasury bonds showed a narrowing trend; In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar fluctuated downward and non US currencies generally rose; In the bulk commodity market, important market indexes showed an upward trend, and overseas non-ferrous metal prices continued to rise; In the real estate market, the house price index is lower, and the capital pressure of real estate enterprises is still large.
Risk tips
The economy accelerated downward; The policy is not as expected; The epidemic broke out repeatedly
