Key investment points
Market review of transportation service sector this week
1) Shenwan level industries (31): this week (January 10-january 14), the cumulative growth of social services and transportation industries were - 0.84% and - 1.77% respectively, ranking 10th and 19th respectively; The CSI 300 index rose by - 1.98%.
2) Shenwan secondary industry (134): this week (January 10 to January 14), the cumulative growth of hotel catering, tourism and scenic spots, tourism retail and airport were + 3.6%, + 0.2%, + 0.0% and - 1.8% respectively, ranking 5th, 26th, 41st and 79th respectively.
Covid-19 epidemic tracking
Diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia: 1) China: from January 8 to January 14, 836 local confirmed cases (685 last week) were reported in China, mainly in Henan Province (Luoyang, Zhengzhou, Xuchang, Zhoukou, Shangqiu, Hua county, Anyang and Xinyang), Shaanxi Province (Xi'an), Zhejiang Province (Ningbo and Hangzhou) Guangdong Province (Shenzhen, Zhongshan and Zhuhai), Tianjin and Shanghai; As of 16:00 on January 15, 2022, there are 91 medium and high-risk areas in China, including 20 high-risk areas (Tianjin 5, Shaanxi 1 and Henan 14) and 71 medium risk areas (Tianjin 16, Henan 21, Shanghai 1, Shaanxi 21, Guangdong 8 and Zhejiang 4). 2) Global: from January 8 to January 14, there were about 19.33 million newly confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia, with a month on month increase of + 28.9%; The number of deaths increased by 47634, a month on month increase of + 8.1%. 3) United States: from January 8 to January 14, about 5.67 million cases were newly diagnosed, an increase of 21% month on month; There were 13740 new deaths, an increase of 20% month on month. 4) UK: from January 8 to January 14, about 880000 new cases were diagnosed, with a month on month decrease of 30%; There were 1884 new deaths, an increase of 67% month on month. Covid-19 vaccination: 1) China: as of January 14, China has reported about 2.93 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine; At the same time, the third needle was introduced throughout the country to strengthen needle vaccination. About 5.89 million doses of covid-19 vaccine were vaccinated every day from January 8 to January 14, a month on month decrease of 21%. 2) Global: as of January 14, the world had received about 9.6 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine, and 60% of the world's population had received at least one dose of vaccine.
Airport & aviation: flight execution picked up slightly this week
1) industry: according to the vertical and horizontal data of air travel, from January 10 to January 14, the daily average number of flights executed by Chinese and international routes was about 10025, a year-on-year decrease of 28.5% in 2019 and a month on week increase of 1.0%.
2) aviation department: from January 10 to January 14, according to the data of flight standards, the average daily flight numbers of Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Chunqiu, Jixiang and Huaxia were 923, 1597, 1417, 441, 290 and 145 respectively, with a month on week average of 3.2%, 2.3%, 5.2%, 0.7%, - 2.4% and 1.8% respectively.
4) Air China Limited(601111) December ask and RPK increased significantly month on month: in December, Air China ask decreased by 33% compared with 2019 and increased by 30% month on month; RPK decreased by 37% year-on-year in 2019 and increased by 40% month on month; The occupancy rate is 63%, down 4% year-on-year in 2019. From January to December 2021, Air China ask decreased by 47% and RPK decreased by 55% compared with the same period of 19 years.
5) China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) December ask and RPK increased month on month: in December, China Eastern Airlines ask decreased by 21% compared with 2019 and increased by 12% month on month; RPK decreased by 31% year-on-year in 2019 and increased by 13% month on month; The occupancy rate is 59%, down 9% year-on-year in 2019. From January to December 2021, China Eastern Airlines ask decreased by 34% and RPK decreased by 50% compared with the same period of 19 years.
6) China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) December ask and RPK increased significantly month on month: in December, China Southern Airlines ask decreased by 32% compared with 2019 and increased by 25% month on month; RPK decreased by 37% year-on-year in 2019 and increased by 28% month on month; The occupancy rate is 65%, down 16% year-on-year in 2019. From January to December 2021, the ask of China Southern Airlines decreased by 38% and the RPK decreased by 47% compared with the same period of 19 years.
7) Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) 12 menstrual camp data increased: in December Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) ask decreased by 22% year-on-year in 2019 and increased by 10% month on month; RPK decreased by 26% year-on-year in 2019 and increased by 7% month on month; The occupancy rate is 75%, down 8% year-on-year in 2019. From January to December 2021, Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) ask decreased by 6% and RPK decreased by 13% compared with the same period of 19 years.
8) Airport: from January 10 to January 14, according to the flight control data, the daily average take-off and landing sorties of Shanghai Pudong, Shanghai Hongqiao, capital airport, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) and Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) were 358, 310, 349, 477 and 269 respectively, 2.0%, - 1.7%, 10.2%, 13.3% and - 28.3% respectively.
9) Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) December 2021 data: take off and landing sorties: Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) 28000 take off and landing sorties in December, a year-on-year decrease of 14% in 2019 and 11% in 2020; From January to December, the number of takeoff and landing sorties exceeded 317000, a year-on-year decrease of 14% in 2019 and 0.7% in 2020. Passenger throughput: Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) in December, the passenger throughput was about 2.886 million person times, a year-on-year decrease of 25% in 2020; From January to December, the passenger throughput was about 36.36 million person times, a year-on-year decrease of 4% in 2020. 10) Data of capital airport in December 2021: takeoff and landing sorties: 22125 sorties of capital airport in December, down 56% year-on-year in 2019 and 31% year-on-year in 2020; From January to December, the number of takeoff and landing sorties exceeded 298000, a year-on-year decrease of 50% in 2019 and an increase of 2% in 2020. Passenger throughput: the passenger throughput of capital airport in December was about 2.013 million person times, a year-on-year decrease of 45% in 2020; Among them, the passenger throughput of Chinese routes was 1.984 million, a year-on-year decrease of 67% in 2019 and 46% in 2020. From January to December, the passenger throughput was about 32.64 million person times, a year-on-year decrease of 5% in 2020; Among them, the passenger throughput of Chinese routes is about 32.24 million person times, a year-on-year decrease of 55% in 2019 and a year-on-year increase of 2% in 2020.
Duty free: the off-line aromatherapy discount of China free outlying islands duty-free has been narrowed from 70% off 3 pieces to 75% off 3 pieces
The number of passengers at the airport increased month on month for eight consecutive weeks
1) Hainan flight volume tracking: from January 8 to January 14, the average daily inbound and outbound flights of Sanya Phoenix Airport and Haikou Meilan International Airport were 366 and 447 respectively, down 1% and up 5% respectively compared with last week; In the same period, the average daily passenger volume of Haikou Airport (expected) was 56530, an increase of 6.5% month on month.
2) tax free channel discount tracking: on Sunday, the discount intensity of direct mail and outlying island tax-free channels (overseas travel investment and China export service) was basically the same month on month, while the discount intensity of China free outlying island tax-free and Haifa control was weakened.
3) China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) the expected net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2021 is about 9.4-10.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 54% to 66%; Among them, 21q4 is expected to make a profit of RMB 900-1.6 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 70% - 46%.
4) in 2021, Haikou customs supervised 49.5 billion yuan of duty-free shopping on Hainan outlying islands, 6.72 million people, 70.45 million pieces of shopping, and 7368 yuan per capita, an increase of 80%, 49.8%, 107% and 20.2% respectively compared with the previous year. Among them, the sales of cosmetics, watches and jewelry ranked among the top three.
Investment advice
1) recommended Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) : the current valuation has the configuration cost performance, and the marginal travel demand in China is upward. Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) has signed a contract with LV, which is still expected to usher in catalysis in the near future, and the company is expected to usher in the double repair of performance and valuation.
2) three major airlines are recommended: domestic covid-19 oral specific drugs have been approved for listing, the dawn of the recovery of international flights may be present, and the company will show great profit flexibility in the recovery stage.
3) recommendation Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) : China's transportation capacity accounts for a large proportion, and its performance is the first to recover. Before the opening of the door, its profit performance is more stable and has high long-term growth.
4) it is suggested to pay attention to Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) : the scale advantage is obvious, the management is significantly improved, the overseas recovery is accelerated, and it is expected to usher in a period of high-speed growth.
