Strategic view
On Friday, the trend of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock index was divided. As of the close, the Shanghai index fell 0.96%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.02%, the gem index rose 1.18%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 0.82%, the Shanghai 50 fell 1.42% and the China Securities 500 fell 0.23%. The number of gainers in the two cities was 1524, lower than the average value of 2081 last week and higher than 1234 in the previous trading day. The limit was 83, lower than the average value of 86 last week and higher than 63 in the previous trading day. The net inflow of northbound funds was 282 million yuan, the average value of last week was 1.551 billion yuan, and the net outflow on the previous trading day was 585 million yuan. The turnover of the two cities was 1108.7 billion yuan, breaking trillion yuan for 11 consecutive days. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets split, and the Shenzhen stock market is obviously stronger than the Shanghai stock market, but the Shenzhen composite index also surged up and fell down. The main reason for stopping the decline is that the GEM market is adjusted before the main board index, and the decline is much larger than the main board market. If the GEM market can continue to recover, it will effectively improve market sentiment. To a certain extent, the decline of the main board market is defined as making up the decline, It is also a style rebalancing behavior. At present, the main board market has fallen or not ended, and the GEM market has entered the bottom grinding stage.
Stock index futures trading strategy
Point of view: when futures turn to discount, the short-term market sentiment is cautious
(1) on January 14, the positions of if, IH and IC contracts were 202800, 120400 and 285000 respectively, with an increase of - 2.1%, - 1.3% and 1.46% on a daily basis
(2) on January 14, the difference between the contract and spot price of if, IH and IC in the current month was -3.13 points, -2.25 points and 7.26 points, which changed by -4.41 points, 0.26 points and -13.78 points compared with the previous trading day. Operation suggestions: ih2201 mainly sells every high, with a resistance level of 3170 points
Option trading strategy
Viewpoint: the PCR value and implied volatility are at a low level, and the momentum of short-term index decline may be insufficient
(1) on January 14, the PCR (positions) of 50ETF option, Huatai 300etf option, harvest 300etf option and 300 stock index option were 0.57, 0.8, 0.62 and 0.66 respectively, and the PCR values of 50ETF and 300etf options were at a historical low.
(2) on January 14, the implied volatility of 300etf option and 50ETF option were 16.9% and 16.9% respectively. The implied volatility of 300etf option increased slightly, and the implied volatility of 50ETF option remained low. Operation suggestion: aggressive strategy: sell 300etf and sell 4700 options in January; Robust strategy: none; Hedging strategy: None
Risk tips
1. Rapid cooling of market transactions; 2 short term panic continued to spread risk factors.
