Topic of this week: 1) on January 16, 2022, the national development and Reform Commission issued a notice on doing a good job in promoting consumption in the near future, emphasizing that on the premise of accurate and effective epidemic prevention and control, we should seize the opportunity of the consumption peak season of traditional festivals such as the Spring Festival and the Lantern Festival, further release the consumption potential of residents and promote a stable start of the economy in the first quarter. 2) Baijiu Baijiu: the recent epidemic has made the market worry about the demand for liquor, and the sector has been adjusted. But we think that the dynamic selling of famous Baijiu is relatively high, mainly due to: (1) overall, the high-end liquor needs to occupy a relatively high proportion, and the epidemic situation has limited influence. ② Under the guidance of the national consumption promotion policy, the epidemic prevention and control will also tend to be accurate, and the impact on consumption is expected to gradually weaken. Currently Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) correspond to PE of 38.5x and 31.5x respectively in 2022, which have been adjusted to a reasonable range. It is recommended to pay active attention. 3) Food: at present, it is suggested to actively pay attention to the high-end opportunities of the beer sector. ① the impact of short-term dynamic sales fluctuation on the income end of the whole year can be controlled; ② Structural upgrading and price increase are expected to ensure performance growth; ③ The valuation of major beer enterprises has been adjusted to a reasonable range. At present, the PE of Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) and China Resources beer in 2022 are 41.1x/35.6x/42.1x respectively, with a certain safety margin.
Industry highlights: 1) Toly Bread Co.Ltd(603866) in 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 13.51% year-on-year. 2) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) : announcement of annual performance increase in 2021. 3) Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) the directors of the company resigned.
Risk tips: 1. The risk of macroeconomic weakness; 2. The risk of long-term epidemic prevention and control in China; 3. Risks of major food safety incidents; 4. Major agricultural epidemic risk.
