CPI / PPI: the fall in the prices of vegetables, pork and other food pulled down the increase of CPI, and PPI continued to fall at a high level. The increase in supply led to the decline of the high price of vegetables, the continued downturn of pork prices, which dragged down the year-on-year increase of CPI. At the same time, the effect of the policy of maintaining supply and stabilizing prices continued, the prices of bulk commodities such as coal and crude oil fell, and PPI fell continuously from the high point year-on-year. Looking forward to the first quarter of 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI will continue to slow down, CPI may remain moderate as a whole, and inflation will not become the main concern of the central bank's interest rate reduction and other relaxation policies. The accelerated spread of Omicron, unresolved global supply chain bottlenecks and increased expectations also increase the possibility of deterioration of high inflation.
Financial data: the growth rate of social finance continued to pick up, the demand for real estate financing was insufficient, and the credit and social finance increment were lower than expected. The growth rate of social finance and M2 both rebounded, but the demand of the real economy was still weak. The year-on-year and month on month data of credit and social finance scale increment in December were lower than market expectations. Due to the economic downturn and the tight real estate policy, the overall credit situation is not optimistic. However, with the development of China's counter cyclical and cross cyclical policies, the advance of the issuance of special bonds of local governments, the gradual recovery of real estate and the moderate development of infrastructure weakness board, the credit probability continues to usher in a "good opening", and the credit increment may mainly depend on the implementation of government projects and the use of carbon emission reduction tools.
Import and export: the accelerated spread of overseas epidemic and the rise of some commodity prices have promoted the export to maintain a high growth rate. Supported by factors such as rising prices and the continued return of orders caused by the overseas epidemic, China's exports remained strong, while imports fell short of expectations due to weak domestic demand. In December, exports increased by 20.9% and imports increased by 19.5% year-on-year. Due to the uneven economic recovery process between China and foreign countries, developed countries and developing countries in 2021, China's export growth has exceeded expectations for many times. Market institutions believe that the export growth rate will fall this year, but it is expected that the decline will not be excessive.
Capital analysis: this week, the central bank invested a net 10 billion yuan in the open market, and the capital price rose slightly; It is expected that the overall capital level during the tax period is stable, and the situation across the spring festival needs to be observed. This week, the central bank carried out a total of 50 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market. A total of 40 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired in the open market of the central bank this week. Therefore, the central bank invested a net 10 billion yuan in the open market this week. Capital prices rose slightly. The abnormal failure of the central bank to conduct incremental investment in the cross tax period shows that the central bank believes that the capital market is still rich after the RRR reduction. On the whole, the impact of the tax period on capital is limited. Focus on the continuation of MLF next week.
Interest rate debt: the bond market has rushed to cut interest rates. Whether the interest rate cut is implemented or failed, and the wide credit force in the first quarter will put some pressure on the bond market. For the short-term bond market, whether the interest rate cut boots fall or the expectation fails, it may lead to the adjustment of the bond market. In addition, the current policy focuses on "stable growth", a series of policy tools and official statements point to the increase of the total amount of credit, the potential of subsequent entity financing needs to be released, and it is expected to continue to support the year-on-year recovery of social finance, Therefore, the bond market may also be impacted by the "good start" of the economy, and the market may have to be prepared for periodic adjustment.
Convertible bonds: the equity market fluctuated and fell sharply, and the convertible bond market fell accordingly. We pay attention to new and old infrastructure, high boom sectors, consumption, food and beverage, etc. This week, the equity market fell sharply, the convertible bond market fell with the equity market, more than 70% of the convertible bonds recorded a decline, and the pharmaceutical, automobile and other sectors performed better. At the current stage, there is indeed a decline in the cost performance of convertible bonds. We should pay attention to new and old infrastructure, high boom sectors, consumption, food and beverage, etc.
Equity market: core assets fell again, and "demon stocks" drove popularity. This week, the Shanghai index fell unilaterally and value stocks performed well. The Shanghai index closed at 3521.26 points this week, down 1.63% this week. Strong sales of electric vehicle terminals and investment opportunities focusing on profit certainty; In December, the sales volume of excavators was better than expected, and attention was paid to the opportunity of steady growth; The State Grid's UHV investment has accelerated, and the landscape of equipment suppliers has improved; The national development and Reform Commission initiated water environment treatment planning and paid attention to the investment opportunities of leading enterprises. Looking forward to the future, the first quarter and the second quarter of 2022 are the window period for China's steady growth policy. From the perspective of counter cyclical regulation and RMB, the overall opportunities of A-Shares may be mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. At present, there is a stage outperforming basis for the value style of a shares. In terms of strategy, control the overall position and tap the relevant stocks with continuous outbreak of fundamentals. In terms of industry configuration, under the violent fluctuations in the peripheral market, the mandatory consumption has the advantage of "advancing and retreating". The worry about new virus variants may strengthen the configuration value of the mandatory consumption sector.
Gold: the Fed's relatively dovish remarks and high inflation pushed gold prices up continuously. The price of gold fluctuated and rose this week, mainly due to the relatively dovish remarks made by the chairman of the Fed this week to alleviate the market's concern about raising interest rates. At the same time, U.S. inflation continued to be high and the dollar index was weak, increasing the anti inflation demand for gold. As the focus of market attention gradually shifts from taper to interest rate hike, the Fed's early interest rate hike will continue to strengthen and land, and the gold price is still under pressure and may fall.
Crude oil: the expected shortage of supply and the cold winter led to an increase in energy demand and a sharp rise in oil prices. The factors driving the sharp rise of oil prices mainly come from the supply side. The supply of some oil producing countries is limited due to the Iran nuclear negotiations and the Ukrainian border crisis, and the possible extreme weather in the United States leads to a large increase in demand in the short term. However, due to most short-term disturbance factors, the long-term trend is not changed, Moreover, OPEC + still has a strong capacity to increase production and the willingness of China and the United States to jointly release crude oil strategic reserves has increased, and the oil price may rise and fall in the short term.
Black industrial chain: the tight supply and demand still led to the continued rise of rebar prices, and the relaxation of the ban in Indonesia led to the decline of the increase of double coke prices. With the tightening of supply and the slight recovery of demand, the price of rebar continued to rise. The overall screw thread supply and demand is slightly tight. With the marginal improvement of the real estate industry, the screw thread steel price still has a certain support. The decline in the price increase of double coke is more affected by the relaxation of Indonesia's export ban. Considering the improvement of downstream demand, sufficient inventory in China and the weakening impact of Indonesia's ban, the price of double Coke will remain relatively stable.
Analysis on the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar: the US CPI rose by 7% year-on-year, the US dollar weakened under high inflation, and the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar rose. The dollar index fell this week. The US CPI released on Wednesday rose 7% year-on-year and the core CPI reached 5.5%. Despite the rapid tightening of the Fed's monetary policy in recent months, US inflation remained high, and the market's trust in the Fed's control of inflation weakened, leading to the weakening of the US dollar. The RMB rose against the US dollar due to the weakening of the US dollar index and the maintenance of strong Chinese exports.
Risk tip: monetary policy tightened more than expected, and credit risk broke out intensively
