A series of studies on epidemic impact: epidemic tracking in Beijing and Shanghai

The social aspects of 16 districts in Shanghai have been cleared. On May 17, the press conference on epidemic prevention and control in Shanghai said that all 16 districts in the city had achieved social clearance. In the past seven days, only three positive cases were screened from the risk population in Qingpu District on May 19. In addition, 671, 784 and 819 new cases have been added in the control areas of the city in the past three days, rebounding, but still at the low level since April. The three districts with a large number of new cases in the past three days are Yangpu, Hongkou and Jing’an, with a total of 706, 332 and 285 cases respectively.

The resumption of work and production in Shanghai has gradually spread. According to first finance, Shanghai should promote the resumption of work and production in three stages: in the first stage, from now to May 21, focus on restoring the industrial chain and supply chain; The second stage, from May 22 to May 31, will expand the resumption of work and production; The third stage is to accelerate the full resumption of work and production after June 1. According to Shanghai, cross regional public transport will be gradually restored from the 22nd of this month, and rail transit will first restore lines 3, 6, 10 and 16. The congestion index in Shanghai continued to rise to 82.82% in the first ten days of September last year, up from 16.5% in the same period last year.

The number of new cases per day in Beijing has increased in recent days. The number of new positive local cases in Beijing began to rise in late April. After April 27, the number of new cases fluctuated around 50 cases, which was in the platform period. 68 new cases were reported on May 20. Since late April, the total number of confirmed + asymptomatic cases has reached 1434, including 1174 confirmed cases, accounting for 81.9%. From the perspective of zoning, the three districts with the most new cases from May 18 to May 20 were Fengtai District, Fangshan District and Haidian District, with 87, 35 and 27 cases increased respectively.

Beijing society further calmed down. 1) On April 19, Beijing had 0 and 1 high-risk and medium risk areas respectively; On April 25, the prevention and control was gradually upgraded. On April 30, the number of high-risk and medium risk areas increased to 7 and 28 respectively; In May, the number of medium risk areas remained stable, and the number of high-risk areas continued to increase. As of May 20, there were 15 and 23 high-risk and medium risk areas respectively. 2) On May 20, at the 340th press conference on the prevention and control of the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic in Beijing, xuhejian, a spokesman of the Beijing municipal government, said: we should promote further social calm. Fengtai District has promoted the management and control of the whole region, strictly implemented the principle of not leaving the district unless necessary, and implemented home office. Fangshan District will continue to strictly enforce the principle of not leaving the district unless necessary, and implement home office. Haidian District will further reduce the on-the-job rate and reduce personnel mobility. Chaoyang District, Shunyi District and other local seal control areas shall be unsealed and protected after meeting the lifting conditions. 3) On May 20, the average passenger volume of Beijing subway in the past seven days was 1907300, only 20.1% of that in the same period last year; On May 20, the average value of congestion index in the past seven days was 1.21, only 70.1% of that in the same period last year.

Risk tip: the epidemic situation exceeded expectations and the virus mutation exceeded expectations. It is only for data tracking and does not represent any investment suggestions.

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