Conclusion: the progress of fiscal tax rebate is accelerated
Most of the economic indicators fell in April. From the medium-term and high-frequency data since May, there are signs of improvement at both ends of supply and demand: on the one hand, the terminal demand has improved, the decline in the growth rate of real estate sales in 35 cities has narrowed, and the growth rate of passenger car wholesale and retail sales of the passenger car association has rebounded; On the other hand, industrial production continued to recover, and the operating rates of major industries such as steel, automobile and chemical industry continued to rise. However, the growth rate of steel production of steel mills and the decline rate of coal consumption for power generation of coastal power plants both expanded, indicating that the recovery of production is still not firm.
In April, the national fiscal revenue was significantly reduced, and the large-scale retention and tax rebate of value-added tax implemented from that month was the main drag. According to the data of the Ministry of finance, 90% of the year-on-year decline in fiscal revenue in April was caused by the tax rebate of value-added tax. According to the retention tax rebate arrangement issued in March, the tax rebate in April mainly involves the stock tax of small enterprises and the incremental tax of small and micro enterprises and qualified manufacturing enterprises, of which the incremental tax of manufacturing enterprises accounts for nearly half. In order to speed up the implementation of the policies that have been issued and implement the relief of enterprises as soon as possible, the financial department issued a document in April and may respectively to advance the stock tax refund time of medium-sized and large enterprises in manufacturing and other industries from the third quarter to the second quarter, and requires it to be completed before the second quarter. If the epidemic situation can continue to improve, with the help of the accelerated tax rebate progress of large and medium-sized enterprises, the business pressure of enterprises may be gradually relieved, and the willingness of enterprises in some areas to resume work and production may also be enhanced.
