Review: on January 3, 2022, "it's the turn of big finance" began. The whole market developed its own style and recommended "big finance" (banks and real estate), on January 16, "retreat or attack, rely on big finance", on February 6, "big finance, continue to cut", and on March 6, "a new round of upward attack of big finance". It continued to emphasize that "big finance" was the winner and loser of 2022 investment. It seemed to be defensive, but in fact it was the best attack. In the first quarter, real estate and banks, Ranked among the top three gainers, the latest changes in fund positions once again confirm the foresight and correctness of our views.
On the whole, the market focus has returned to "internal focus", the policies supporting the balance sheet repair of enterprises and residents have been introduced, the risk appetite has been improved, and the market has got rid of the early difficulties and gradually stepped up. Looking ahead, the market is expected to usher in another round of intensive policy warm season after January. Focusing on internal economic growth will become the main focus and main contradiction of the market at this stage. Along this idea, three chains are configured: 1) real estate chain (household appliances, household appliances, consumer building materials and real estate); 2) Service consumption chain (Hotel, tourism, catering, transportation, media and Internet); 3) Growth stocks with excellent performance growth main line (chips are fully dispersed, valuation is low, performance is stable, and the competition pattern has not deteriorated).
The policy warm season comes as scheduled, focusing on the focus of policies and repairing the balance sheets of residents and enterprises.
\u3000\u30001. Support and help residents repair their balance sheets. On May 15, the lower limit of mortgage interest rate was lowered by 20bp, and on May 20, the five-year LPR was lowered by 15bp. In less than a week, the mortgage interest rate closely related to the residents' balance sheet was reduced by 35bp, and the policy gave the residents the possibility of repairing the balance sheet in the shortest time. Compared with the previous two rounds of real estate easing, the average mortgage interest rate decreased by more than 140 BP in 20122013 and more than 240 BP in 20142017. Although the amplitude is far from enough compared with the previous two. However, in such a short time, such a strong policy has a certain role and positive effect on the repair of residents' balance sheet.
\u3000\u30002. Look forward to similar policies on corporate balance sheet repair in 2020. Due to the impact of the two-year epidemic, many enterprises have encountered more difficulties in operation, resulting in the decline of balance sheet. The market generally hopes to introduce relevant policies similar to those at the beginning of 2020 to support enterprises to resume work and production and repair statements. At this stage, we can see that the policies supporting the repair of enterprise balance sheet are starting a prairie fire with a single spark. This will help improve investors' pessimistic expectations for their operating data and financial statements, which may also become the key direction of investment in the next stage. Referring to 2020, we can consider that the balance sheet has been seriously damaged in the past two years, and the service consumption represented by catering, tourism, aviation and hotels is expected to become the main focus of the policy.
\u3000\u30003. The pressure of steady growth remains. After infrastructure and real estate, consumption still needs to pick up. In the short term, due to the difficult balance sheet situation of residents and enterprises, the consumption potential may be insufficient and limited. From the perspective of the whole year, the economic goal remains. After stabilizing employment, the introduction of superimposed consumption policies and measures is expected to drive the positive performance of relevant consumption sectors. Similar policies and measures such as home appliances to the countryside and the reduction and exemption of bulk consumer goods should actively promote the improvement of the market and consumption.
The wrong cycle of China US economy may be more optimistic about a shares, and the counterattack moment of "Normandy landing" is gradually approaching. In the first half of the year, the overseas economy was at a high level, and China's economy hovered at the bottom. Superimposed on the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike, the funds returned to developed markets and low-risk assets. At present, under high inflation and high interest rates, the US economy is worried, and several leading indicators continue to weaken. As China's steady growth continues to develop and the stage with the greatest impact of the epidemic gradually passes, A-Shares are expected to once again become the "Darling" of the global capital market. The recent continuous inflow of foreign capital is also confirming this judgment.
Configuration suggestions: three main lines: real estate chain, service consumption chain and merit growth.
Service consumption chain is the main policy focus and improvement direction. "Take over: big consumption is about to usher in buying points" was put forward on April 17. At the current time point, the policy of stimulating consumption is expected to be gradually implemented. Shanghai will gradually return to work and market in stages, and consumer stocks are expected to usher in a round of expected and data repair. Looking forward to the data of May and June, the data may be subject to twists and turns, but the worst time point of the data has gradually passed, the more pessimistic expectation of the stock price has been reflected, and the signs of improvement are gradually seen in the follow-up.
From the perspective of the whole year of the next year, the buying point to gradually meet the large consumption is a more comfortable and appropriate time point for cost performance, odds and winning rate. However, the process of gradually and slowly adding the consumption sector is not smooth. We should match it slowly and buy it slowly. We are not in a hurry to buy it at one go, because the epidemic situation is repeated, data verification and other disturbances exist, and the process is twists and turns. We should fight a "guerrilla war" and turn a small victory into a big victory.
The real estate chain is waiting for data, the policy is overweight, the data is expected to keep up, and there is a good opportunity for additional allocation. The relaxation of real estate supply and demand is expected to bring about the repair of real estate valuation and fundamentals. The recent performance of real estate enterprises in the real estate chain is still weak, partly due to the poor performance of the real estate market. In the future, from the perspective of fundamentals and policies, from the relaxation of relevant policies of real estate enterprises on the supply side to the liberalization of purchase restrictions, loan restrictions and interest rate reduction on the demand side. Focus on high-quality real estate enterprises that benefit from the supply side reform and can "survive", and focus on the core allocation idea of "the leftover is the king". At the same time, with the improvement of subsequent real estate data, the post real estate cycle is expected to improve gradually.
For blue chip growth stocks, it is expected to continue to benefit from the improvement of policy and risk appetite, and grasp the direction of double growth of performance and valuation. According to the four point style index, the rebound since April 27 is mainly small cap and growth style. The reason is that during the decline from April 11 to 26, the Shanghai epidemic struck the supply chain, foreign exchange depreciation, foreign capital outflow and a large number of financing positions, and other negative factors resonated. Small cap and growth style were most damaged in this environment of systematic reduction of risk appetite. As the above factors ease, the steady growth policy injects confidence into the market, and the small cap and growth style under the repair of risk appetite have been partially repaired, resulting in the excess return of the recent rebound. In the future, due to the large decline in growth direction, this stage focuses on the direction of reasonable chip structure, upward performance fundamentals, high valuation and cost performance, and the competition pattern has not deteriorated. Such as photovoltaic, military subdivision faucet, semiconductor faucet, etc.
Meso industry boom (for specific logic and benefit targets, please refer to the text chart): focus on building materials, photovoltaic, media and other directions this week. The industries worthy of attention in this period include petroleum and Petrochemical (oil and gas exploitation & Refining & oil service), non-ferrous metals (rare earth), building materials (consumer building materials), power equipment (photovoltaic), mechanical equipment (air separation), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (planting & poultry breeding), light industry manufacturing (cultural paper), automobile (whole industry chain), media (Cinema), non bank finance (brokerage) and transportation (shipping).
New building materials, power equipment and media. In terms of building materials, the prices of waterproof materials, coatings and other consumer building materials fell, and the profitability is expected to be repaired. In terms of power equipment, under the dual stimulation of soaring global energy prices and geographical instability, the acceptance of photovoltaic terminals to prices has increased, and the prices of industrial chains have increased. In the media, the national film box office rose by 5.1% month on month, which is expected to continue to repair with the recovery of the epidemic.
Maintain petroleum and petrochemical, non-ferrous metals, machinery and equipment, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, light industry manufacturing, automobile, non bank finance and transportation. In terms of petroleum and petrochemicals, the international oil price, the price of refined products and the total number of drilling rigs in North America rose month on month. There are three constraints on the supply side: labor force, equipment and geographical instability. In terms of non-ferrous metals, rare earth prices continued to rise, or were mainly driven by the resumption of new energy industry chain. In terms of machinery and equipment, industrial oxygen prices continued to rebound. In terms of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, the prices of wheat and corn rose simultaneously, while in terms of pig breeding, although the price ratio of pig feed remained rebounded, as the pig price approached the breakeven point, the subsequent capacity removal speed may slow down. In terms of light industrial manufacturing, the international pulp remained in short supply, driving the upward price of pulp, but China's entry into the off-season may lead to the weakening of the demand side. In terms of automobiles, the passenger car industry chain has recovered across the board; In terms of non bank finance, the Wande all a index maintained a rebound.
Risk tips: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated, overseas interest rate hikes exceeded expectations, and the spread of the epidemic exceeded expectations
