Liquidity: the yield spread of 10-year US bonds is at an all-time low since 2010. (1) The value of BCI financing environment index in April 2022 was 41.85, – 9.36% month on month. The high probability of phased high has appeared at the end of September 2020 (54.02). According to historical experience, this is not good for the medium and long term of gem index; (2) The yield spread of China US ten-year Treasury bonds was 1 BP on Friday.
Infrastructure and real estate chain: from January to April, the cumulative sales of houses and new construction fell by 20.9% and 26.3% respectively year-on-year. (1) Price changes this week: thread – 1.63%, cement price index – 1.25%, rubber + 2.81%, coke + 0.00%, coking coal – 2.24%, iron ore + 2.40%; (2) This week, the national blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, petroleum asphalt and all steel tire operating rate were + 0.38pct, -8.92pct, -4.50pct and -1.11pct respectively; (3) From January to April, housing sales and new construction fell by 20.9% and 26.3% respectively year-on-year.
Real estate completion chain: from January to April, the cumulative completed area was – 11.9% year-on-year. (1) The prices of titanium dioxide and glass were + 0.00% and – 2.65% month on month respectively this week; (2) This week, the profit of titanium dioxide was 591 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of – 23.11%, and the gross profit of flat glass was 29 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of – 56.06%; (3) From January to April, the cumulative completed area was – 11.9% year-on-year.
The average daily volume of passenger cars and industrial products in the same period is the lowest in 5 years. (1) The price performance of major bulk commodities this week: the price of cold rolling, copper and aluminum changed by – 0.55%, + 1.21%, + 3.33% month on month, and the corresponding gross profit changed by – 37.22%, + 1.66%, + 36.77%; (2) In the week of May 15, the average daily sales volume of passenger car wholesale and retail was 67000, up + 11.94% from the data on May 8.
Breakdown varieties: electrolytic aluminum gross profit rose by + 37%. (1) Graphite electrode: the ultra-high power is 26000 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of + 0.00%, and the comprehensive gross profit is 342205 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of + 0.39%; (2) Nickel: the price is 223600 yuan / ton, up + 2.47% from last week; (3) Prebaked anode: the price this week is 7800 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of + 0.00%; (4) The price of electrolytic aluminum is 20770 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 3.33%, and the estimated profit is 2205.5 yuan / ton (excluding tax), a month on month increase of + 36.77%; (5) The comprehensive gross profit of the iron and steel industry was 171 yuan / ton, down from – 27.01% last week; (6) The price of molybdenum concentrate was 2710 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of -0.73%.
Price comparison relationship: the price difference between cold and hot rolling is 600 yuan / ton, which is at a high level in the same period of 6 years. (1) The price ratio of screw thread to iron ore was 5.14 this week; (2) The price difference between hot coil and rebar this Friday is 50 yuan / ton; (3) This week, the price difference between cold rolled steel and hot rolled steel in Shanghai reached 600 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 50 yuan / ton; (4) The price ratio of electrolytic nickel in stainless steel hot rolling is 0.10; (5) The price difference between spiral nuts (mainly used in real estate) and deformed steel bars (mainly used in infrastructure construction) reached 320 yuan / ton on Friday, up + 3.23% from last week; (6) The price difference of rebar between Xinjiang and Shanghai was – 40 yuan / ton on Friday.
Export chain: the utilization rate of crude steel production capacity in the United States (81.8%) is at a high level in the same period. (1) China’s export container freight rate index CCFI composite index this week was 313578 points, a month on month increase of + 1.55%; (2) This week, the utilization rate of crude steel production capacity in the United States was 81.80%, with a month on month ratio of + 0.40 percentage points; (3) In April 2022, the new order value of global PMI was 50.30%, with a month on month ratio of – 1.10 percentage points; (4) In April 2022, the new order value of PMI in the United States was 53.50%, with a chain comparison of -0.30 percentage points.
Valuation quantile: this week, the CSI 300 index was + 2.23%. Commercial trucks (+ 9.63%) performed best in the cycle sector. The quantile of Pb ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to that of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Markets (since 2013) was 30.05% and 70.71% respectively; The ratio of Pb in Pu steel sector to Pb in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is currently 0.49, with the highest value of 0.82 since 2013 (reached in August 2017).
Investment suggestion: the expectation of supply contraction in the iron and steel industry is enhanced, and the expectation of improving the fundamentals of the iron and steel industry is enhanced under the superposition of the expectation of steady growth. It is suggested to pay attention to Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Xinjiang Ba Yi Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600581) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) ; Electrolytic aluminum profits rebounded. It is suggested to pay attention to China Hongqiao, Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) .
Risk warning: the risk of correlation failure based on historical data; The risk of government regulation of commodity prices; Risk of poor management of the company.
