Key investment points:
This week’s view
Light industry manufacturing: in April, the total zero amount of furniture society was 11.080 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 14%, further expanding the decline compared with March. The outbreak of the epidemic was more serious, which had a significant impact on the offline consumption of furniture. In the short term, with the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation, Shanghai has gradually entered the stage of resumption of work and production. Under the effective control of the epidemic situation in other parts of China, there is no possibility of improvement in furniture clubs. According to the sales data of household stores in April, the decline rate in a single month is less than zero, which shows that residents still have good demand. At the same time, from the promotion data of large chain stores such as Red Star Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd(601828) during May Day, the furniture consumption demand has gradually warmed up and released in May. Last week, the people’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice to lower the lower limit of commercial individual housing loan interest rate for the first set of housing to no less than the corresponding term loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) by 20 basis points, further protect the real estate industry and release residents’ rigid needs and improved housing needs. Superimposed on the real estate policies of various regions due to urban governance, from the medium-term perspective, the recovery of home demand during the year is supported, and the first low and the later high can be expected. Leading household enterprises have strong competitive advantages in manufacturing, channel and category expansion. At the same time, the whole customization in the era of big home will promote the integration of multiple categories, solve the needs of consumers for one-stop home decoration services, and open the room for the rise of terminal customer unit price. Under the “Matthew effect” of the industry, we continue to be optimistic about the long-term development of head leading companies. At this stage, the valuation of head companies is more reasonable, and there are good allocation opportunities.
Last week, the prices of international pulp and China’s broad-leaved pulp continued to rise. Under the rising cost, the prices of white cardboard and household paper increased. Among them, the price of household paper increased. As of May 20, the price of wood pulp household paper increased by 366.67 yuan / ton on a weekly basis and 206.67 yuan / ton on a monthly basis. Under cost pressure, the price rise trend of household paper and white cardboard may spread to all pulp and paper products, and the price increase progress of paper enterprises may be accelerated. In the short term, it is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises of pulp and paper integration in China.
Textile and clothing: the total retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats and knitwear textiles in April was 79.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23% and a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 6%. In terms of raw materials, the price of long staple cotton continues to fall, and the price of chemical fiber materials is relatively stable. For textile manufacturing enterprises, the cost pressure is easing, but the outflow pressure of orders to Laos, Vietnam and other countries and regions can not be underestimated. Due to the short-term depreciation of RMB, we are relatively more optimistic about the recovery of profit margin of textile manufacturing enterprises. At the same time, we believe that the performance of brand clothing will be better than that of textile manufacturing in the second half of the year. Continue to be optimistic about the camping track. China’s camping market is in the development stage of 0 to 1, and the market volume is in the ascendant. The key recommendation is Toread Holdings Group Co.Ltd(300005) . The tracking data shows that the sales end of Q2 company has recovered significantly, especially the growth trend of equipment related products in May is excellent, and the month on month growth of single quarter is expected to be achieved. Recommended combinations: Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ( Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ), Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ( Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ), Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ( Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ), Chenguang ( Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) ), Toread Holdings Group Co.Ltd(300005) ( Toread Holdings Group Co.Ltd(300005) ).
Risk tips
Macroeconomic fluctuations; Rising raw material costs; New production capacity cannot be digested in time; Loss of key customers.
