Key investment points:
The main line of steady growth is clear, with 3100 A-share repair points: from May 16 to May 20, the main A-share indexes rose collectively, including Kechuang 50, up 3.42%, Shenzhen composite index, up 2.64%, gem index, up 2.51%, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, up 2.23% and Shanghai Composite Index, up 2.02%. This week, most industries in Shenwan class ushered in a sharp rise, of which only the pharmaceutical and biological sector fell sharply, while coal, power equipment and non-ferrous metals increased significantly.
Market risk appetite improved and investor confidence continued to repair: the average daily trading volume of the two cities during the week was 815021 billion yuan, a slight decrease of about 2.42% compared with last week. The trading heat of the market improved this week, and the turnover rate of the main broad stock indexes fluctuated higher. In terms of industries, due to the continuous impact of this round of epidemic, the pharmaceutical and biological sector was active this week, with a turnover of 396.92 billion yuan that week, ranking first for nine consecutive weeks. Power equipment and basic chemical industry ranked second and third, with turnover of 368346 billion yuan and 254397 billion yuan respectively.
Investment suggestions: overseas, on the one hand, the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine were suspended, but the military operation of Yasu iron and steel plant came to an end, and the global geopolitical risks eased periodically; On the other hand, the U.S. economic and employment data were lower than expected during the Fed’s interest rate hike cycle. The market was more worried about the U.S. economy falling into recession in the fourth quarter, and U.S. stocks made a significant adjustment. The epidemic situation in Beijing and Shanghai will be basically brought under control. The economic data in April weakened significantly, significantly lower than the estimated value. However, with the improvement of the epidemic situation and the recovery of the supply chain and production chain, the market unanimously expects that the second quarter is the period with the greatest pressure on economic growth in the whole year. In the future, before the substantial improvement of economic data, macro-control tends to be loose, industrial support policies continue to increase, and the probability of profit expectation hitting the bottom is high. The inflation data in April showed that the prices of upstream raw materials were still high and the prices of downstream products rebounded. Many ministries and commissions expressed their determination to maintain the stability of the prices of resource products, and measures to stabilize prices and ensure supply were introduced one after another. At present, A-Shares have entered the stage of frequent positive policies and pessimistic profit expectations bottoming out. With the repair of low market confidence and the improvement of valuation attractiveness, funds return to the A-share market. In the rebound stage, it is suggested to pay attention to: (1) the decline in the early stage is large, and the industry fundamentals maintain a good track of new energy and hard technology; (2) Steady growth is still the most definite investment main line, capital allocation is strengthened, and the real estate, infrastructure and mandatory consumption sectors deserve attention.
Risk factors: increased geopolitical risks; The epidemic situation worsened; The economy fell more than expected.
