Next week (May 23 to May 27) financial concerns:
(1) the maturity of reverse repurchase is 50 billion yuan;
(2) the net payment of government bonds was 181.1 billion, lower than the net payment of government bonds this week (307.9 billion);
(3) the maturity of interbank certificates of deposit is 541 billion, which is lower than the maturity of interbank certificates of deposit this week (489.2 billion).
Open market situation this week (May 16 to May 20):
This week, the central bank made a net withdrawal of 10 billion yuan, of which the 7-day reverse repo was invested by 50 billion yuan and the maturity scale was 60 billion yuan. One year MLF 100 billion yuan will be continued in equal quantities.
Changes in money market interest rates this week:
This week (may 16-may 20), the trend of money market interest rate is divided. Dr001 interest rate rises by 1.0bp to 1.32%, dr007 falls by 0.1bp to 1.58%, R001 rises by 1.4bp to 1.38%, and R007 rises by 3.5bp to 1.69%. The issuing interest rate of one-month Cd increased by 9.2bp to 1.73%, the issuing interest rate of three-month CD decreased by 3.3bp to 2.10%, the issuing interest rate of six-month Cd increased by 5.6bp to 2.26%, and the issuing interest rate of one-year CD (stock bank) decreased by 8.0bp to 2.42%.
The average daily transaction volume of inter-bank pledged repo this week was 5967.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 144.2 billion yuan over last week. Among them, the average daily turnover of R001 is 5314.3 billion yuan, accounting for an average of 89.1%; The average daily turnover of R007 is 537.6 billion yuan, accounting for an average of 9.1%.
This week, the average daily turnover of the repurchase of new pledged treasury bonds on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 1336.7 billion yuan, down 74.4 billion yuan from last week, of which the average daily turnover of gc001 was 1106.1 billion yuan, accounting for 83.3%, and the average daily turnover of gc007 was 172.7 billion yuan, accounting for 12.5%.
Weekly tracking of interbank certificates of deposit:
This week, major interbank certificates of deposit issued 485.1 billion yuan, with a net financing of 9.68 billion yuan. Compared with last week (major banks issued 594.8 billion yuan, with a net financing of – 57.6 billion yuan), the issuance scale decreased and the net financing increased compared with last week. Among them, urban commercial banks and one-year issuing banks have the largest scale, and the success rate of state-owned banks is the highest.
The yield of inter-bank certificates of deposit decreased, the yield of inter-bank certificates of deposit in September decreased the most, the yield of AAA and AA + grade certificates of deposit decreased, and the yield of AA grade certificates of deposit increased. From the perspective of issuing interest rates of different banks, the interest rate of certificates of deposit in stock banks decreased the most this week.
In terms of main interest margin, the interest margin between rural commercial banks and joint-stock banks expanded from 23bp to 26bp this week; In terms of term spread, the spread between 1y and 1mcd expanded from 2bp to 78bp; In terms of grade spread, the grade spread of AA (1y) – AAA (1y) rises 4bp to 25bp. In addition, the interest margin between the one-year certificate of deposit and R001 of the joint-stock bank decreased by 6BP to 89bp, the interest margin between the one-year certificate of deposit and R007 of the joint-stock bank decreased by 8bp to 59bp, the interest margin of “1ycd-1ymlf” decreased by 4bp to – 57bp, and the interest margin of “1ycd-10y national debt” decreased by 1bp to – 51bp.
Risk warning: policy uncertainty; Fundamentals exceeded expectations.
