Main points
Breaking the law, the 5-year LPR was reduced by 15bp alone
The previous adjustments of 5-year LPR are asymmetric downward. After all, the MLF period of 5-year LPR is longer than that of the benchmark 1-year period. According to the law, basically, the benchmark 1-year MLF will be reduced by 10bp, and the 5-year LPR will be reduced by 5bp. This month’s quotation broke this law, and the five-year LPR was reduced by 15bp alone.
Volume price support, open the space for LPR quotation reduction
This offer is to add some compression under the condition that the policy interest rate remains unchanged. It is also the bank’s active choice under the downward trend of the bank’s capital cost. In April this year, although the reserve requirement was only reduced by 0.25 percentage points, the central bank handed over 600 billion in balance profits to the central government, which is also equivalent to an overall reduction of 0.25 percentage points, and 500 billion yuan will be handed over later. In addition to the total support, the market-oriented reform of deposit interest rate also helps to reduce the debt cost of banks, reduce the financing cost of enterprises by means of reform, and also opens up space for the reduction of LPR quotation.
Boost demand and cope with downward pressure
In March and April, the economic data fell in an all-round way, exports fell, consumption increased negatively, and only investment was independently supported. In the current fixed investment, it only depends on the growth of infrastructure and manufacturing investment, while the decline of real estate investment is still a big drag. Credit supply has also been hampered by the impact of the epidemic, and the demand for residents’ credit and medium and long-term loans of enterprises is weak. Under the current situation, the reduction of the five-year LPR interest rate will not only help boost the demand for residential housing loans and stabilize real estate investment, but also refer to the five-year LPR due to the long term of medium and long-term loans and fixed asset investment loans in the manufacturing industry, which will also help stimulate the investment demand of enterprises, support the investment in manufacturing industry and fixed asset investment, and promote the stable growth of total credit.
The policy is launched in an all-round way, and the incremental policy can be expected
The downward pressure on the economy has increased, and the urgency of stabilizing growth has increased in an all-round way. All policies should be launched in an all-round way. The policies that have been issued should be well implemented and incremental policies should be actively planned. In terms of monetary policy, we should increase support for the real economy, take the initiative to respond and boost confidence. We will continue to reduce costs, pay equal attention to the aggregate structure, and implement policies in line with the market-oriented reform of interest rates, so as to further reduce the financing costs of enterprises. After the five-year interest rate reduction, the one-year interest rate is still possible to be reduced, especially in line with the implementation of the future interest rate and reserve requirement reduction policy.
Risk tips
Inflation continues to rise; Repeated changes in the epidemic situation have once again exceeded expectations; The policy changed more than expected.
