Based on the results of 456 questionnaires on the production and operation of enterprises during the epidemic, which were distributed and recovered at the end of April, we answered the following questions:
1. Which regions and industries are most affected by the epidemic?
The production and operation activities of enterprises in the whole Yangtze River Delta have been affected. Except Shanghai, the areas greatly affected by the epidemic mainly include Nantong, Jiangsu, Suzhou, Zhejiang, Wenzhou and Chuzhou, Anhui. The industries greatly affected by the epidemic mainly include communication equipment, automobile, chemical industry, mechanical equipment, medicine, semiconductor and electronics.
2. Which industries can find alternative capacity outside the Yangtze River Delta?
The supply chain with high division of labor and centralized layout is more efficient, but it is also more fragile. On the contrary, the supply chain with flat dispersion and alternative links is more anti fragile in resisting the impact. Representative products that are difficult to find effective capacity substitution and supplement outside the Yangtze River Delta are mainly concentrated in automobile, machinery, electronics and pharmaceutical industries, as well as organic chemical raw materials.
3. What industries and products are the pressure of price rise concentrated in?
There are four dimensions related to short-term production and transportation; Second, the concentration of production capacity; Third, demand; Fourth, the willingness of downstream inventory and replenishment. From this perspective, products with large short-term price increase space mainly include automobiles, agriculture and food, electronics and semiconductors, upstream industrial products and medical devices. In addition to the above industries, many enterprises in light industry and public utilities said that they had completed price increases this year and had plans for further price increases.
The long-term price increase potential is related to the enterprise capital expenditure plan. Among the above industries with supply and demand gap, the industries with low willingness to expand production in the future and long-term price increase potential mainly include industrial chemical products, new materials, plastics and rubber, as well as food, packaging and printing.
4. What changes may take place in the supply chain after the epidemic?
Safety and cost are the core factors of supply chain reconstruction after the epidemic. For China, the transfer of low-end industries driven by cost factors is an opportunity. Representative industries mainly include textile and clothing, furniture and home furnishings; The transfer of high-end industries driven by safety factors is a risk. The representative industries are mainly electronic components, electronic equipment, communication equipment and some complex mechanical and electrical products. If these industries establish a backup industry chain in Japan, South Korea or Southeast Asia for safety reasons, it may have a negative impact on China’s industrial upgrading.
Risk warning: the reliability of the questionnaire is lower than expected; The representativeness of the questionnaire sample is weaker than expected; The enterprise’s resumption schedule and capital expenditure plan have changed beyond expectations
