Guojin macro united with digital future lab, issue 6 of a series of follow-up reports on resumption of work after the epidemic: accelerated resumption of work, differentiated production repair, stable logistics, improved local areas, continued recovery of urban travel, but catering consumption was depressed.
The number of new infections in China has decreased significantly. Shanghai has promoted the full resumption of work, the repair and differentiation of production activities, the number of new infections in China has decreased significantly, and the number of areas taking sealing and control measures has continued to decrease. This week (may 15-21), the number of new infections in China was 7543, down 57% from last week; The number of new infections fell in most provinces and cities, and only a few areas such as Sichuan, Jilin and Tianjin increased. This week, the number of regions taking various sealing and control measures continued to decrease, and the proportion of GDP in the regions involved fell by 0.6 percentage points.
We will introduce security policies to speed up the resumption of work in Shanghai. This week, the State Council made an overall plan for ensuring connectivity and smoothness, emphasizing the need to focus on key links such as problem rebound, ensuring supply and stabilizing the chain, and key hubs. The CSRC stressed the need to support the areas and industries seriously affected by the epidemic to accelerate the recovery and development, and put forward 23 policy measures, such as increasing direct financing support, implementing the extension policy, optimizing regulatory arrangements and giving full play to the role of industry institutions. Shanghai has made clear the plan for resumption of work and production, and plans to gradually promote the full resumption of work and production after June 1.
The overall level of production activities is still significantly lower than that before the epidemic. This week, the operating rate of the refinery increased by 6.1 percentage points to 58.8% compared with last week; The operating rate of Tangshan blast furnace was the same as that of the previous week; Coke oven productivity decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 82.7%; The national cement price index decreased by 0.3% to 163.2 compared with the previous week. Among them, the cement price index in Northeast China ended its recovery trend and began to fall, down 1.1% to 156.2 compared with the previous week.
Logistics in some areas has improved, ship navigation efficiency has dropped, urban travel has continued to pick up, catering consumption is in the doldrums, the logistics intensity of trucks across the country has leveled off, and the logistics intensity in Northeast China has rebounded. According to the future lab data of Guojin digital, the national truck logistics intensity this week (may 15-21) was 14.1, the same as last week. In terms of regions, the truck logistics intensity in the three northeastern provinces has rebounded, with the largest rebound in Jilin, up 16% month on month; The intensity of truck logistics in North China is differentiated, with Beijing rising 6% month on month, while Shanxi and Hebei falling.
The number of ships in the Yangtze River Delta has decreased, and the weekly average sailing speed has dropped. The mapped changes in foreign trade activities still need to be tracked. According to the future lab data of Guojin digital, the weekly average number of ships in the Yangtze River Delta this week was 890, with a month on month decrease of 6.5%, and the weekly average speed of navigation was 4.1 knots, with a month on month decrease of 4.3%. Among them, Shanghai port activities began to recover, and the number of container ships and total container loading capacity of Shanghai Port rebounded in early May.
The overall passenger flow of subway continues to rise, and the low passenger flow of business districts in all lines of cities rises slightly. This week, the total subway passenger volume of nine major cities in China increased by 3.6% compared with last week, and the subway passenger volume of most cities increased, including 178.6% in Zhengzhou and 15.6% in Guangzhou. According to the future lab data of Guojin digital, the passenger flow of business districts in all tier cities in China has increased slightly, and the passenger flow level of business districts in tier four cities is much higher than that in other cities.
Catering consumption was in the doldrums, some regions performed relatively well, and the monthly consumption of platform e-commerce also fell. According to the future lab data of Guojin digital, the recovery intensity of catering and takeout in all tier cities in China fell to varying degrees this week, and the decline range in the third tier cities was large. With the weakening of the impact of the epidemic, the closure rate of Haidilao has fallen and the recovery intensity of running water has rebounded since May. Fujian and other regions have performed relatively well. The relatively low-frequency e-commerce data show that the consumption of e-commerce on various platforms decreased significantly in April, and the consumption of cosmetics, personal care, textiles and clothing decreased significantly.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation repeatedly exceeds expectations, and there are errors or omissions in data statistics.
