Investment suggestion: at present, we judge that the market probability is already in the bottom range, but the market environment is more complex due to high inflation and repeated epidemics. We suggest paying attention to these directions: (1) cash assets. For example: high dividend and high dividend assets such as coal, real estate, banks, (Chinese prefix) construction, hydropower and communication operators; (2) Independent of the macroeconomic cycle, the dilemma reversed the sector. For example, the pig breeding sector with the reversal of industrial cycle; (3) A sector with booming production and marketing. In the next 1-2 quarters, the performance improvement expectations from strong to weak are: national defense and military industry, household appliances, transportation, communication and computer; (4) New energy and other track stocks. New energy and other track stocks are still in the stage of industrial explosion, and there are still certain investment opportunities, focusing on track stocks with performance support.
Hot topics focus on: (1) renewable energy subsidies are redistributed, and thermal power enterprises may welcome performance restoration. On May 11, Premier Li Keqiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council, which proposed to ensure the normal supply of energy. On the basis of the early stage, another 50 billion yuan of subsidy funds will be allocated and 10 billion yuan will be injected to support the rescue of coal-fired power enterprises and more power generation. On the whole, under the background of the national policy of ensuring supply and price stability and the implementation of renewable energy subsidies, the power sector with a certain margin of safety may usher in performance repair. Among them, there may be some opportunities for traditional power operators with rapid transformation, such as Huaneng Power, Gd Power Development Co.Ltd(600795) etc. (2) Frequent policies, smart appliances, green building materials sector or will continue to recover. On May 9, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued several measures to help small, medium and micro enterprises to solve difficulties. The measures proposed to encourage green smart appliances and green building materials to go to the countryside. On the whole, with the gradual control of the epidemic, the continuous improvement of local real estate policy expectations and the continuous promotion of county construction, although the growth demand for infrastructure will lag, it will eventually be transmitted, consumer confidence may be repaired, and the market demand may be further expanded. Smart home appliances and green building materials sector may usher in favorable conditions. Relevant targets include: Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) and Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) etc. (3) The policy continues to increase and help the rapid development of pension finance. Recently, the notice of the China Banking Regulatory Commission on promoting the development of business and pension services was issued on May. We believe that under the long-term support of the policy, clear business attributes and norms are conducive to the vigorous development of pension financial business, so as to meet China’s growing demand for pension security, and the insurance sector may take the lead in benefiting from the fast-growing market by virtue of its “product + service” endowment advantage. Relevant targets include: Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) , etc.
Revenue performance of hot topics: among the hot topics from May 9 to May 13, the top gainers are yellow rice wine, decorative gardens, new urbanization, anti nuclear radiation and China International Import Expo. The main reason is that affected by the “steady growth” policy and geographical conflicts, relevant sectors are sought after. The top five declines were covid-19 antigen detection, soda ash, livestock and poultry breeding, banks and systemically important financial institutions, mainly due to the current overvaluation of relevant sectors and the obvious adjustment of recent capital tightening.
Last week (may 9-may 13), in the shenwanyi industry, the top five gainers in terms of growth and decline were architectural decoration, automobile, power equipment, building materials and real estate; The top five declines were coal, banking, petroleum and petrochemical, non bank finance and steel. From the weekly cumulative net inflow, the top five cumulative net inflows last week were power equipment, automobile, electronics, food and beverage and non bank finance; The top five cumulative net outflows last week were architectural decoration, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, real estate, medicine, biology and basic chemical industry.
Risk warning: the promotion of relevant policies is not as expected; Industry competition intensifies.
