Main views of overseas markets in one week: the global market continues to fluctuate sharply this week. The technology growth stocks of US stocks continued to fluctuate significantly this week. The information technology of S & P 500 fell 3.77% this week, while Cisco and Huihe fell 13.36% and 11.22% this week; In addition, Tesla, an important us new energy company, fell 13.73% this week. This week, the adjustment of value stocks of US stocks further intensified; S & P 500 non essential consumption and S & P 500 essential consumption fell by 8.63% and 7.44% respectively this week; Among the non essential consumption, target, Bath & bodyworks, rose department store, dollar tree and dale fell by 29%, 24.15%, 21.93%, 19.77% and 19.25% respectively; Among the necessary consumption, Wal Mart, market opener and kraft Heinz pulled back 19.49%, 16.26% and 13.37% respectively. Considering that the valuation of U.S. stocks is still high, the downward pressure on the U.S. economy is still large, and the liquidity of the Federal Reserve has been greatly tightened, it is expected that the U.S. stock market will adjust in the future, and the reverse ETF related to the main indexes of U.S. stocks still has a certain allocation value at this stage. There was a correction in the European market this week. At this stage, there was a sharp correction in technology stocks such as Sino French semiconductor and Infineon technology; Among the value stocks, the financial stocks represented by Allianz Insurance, AXA Group, Milan investment bank, Austrian first savings bank, Zurich Insurance Group and UBS group, the non essential consumer stocks represented by LVMH group, Benzer commerce and Marks & Spencer, and the non essential consumer stocks represented by Diageo, Nestle, diageoplc and Sainsbury were significantly adjusted. Considering that the European market is vulnerable to the linkage impact brought by the US stock market, the European economic growth tends to stagnate, superimposed with the tightening liquidity of the European Central Bank, it is expected that the European market will fluctuate in the future. In addition, other developed markets such as Canada, Australia and New Zealand will undergo significant adjustments. From the perspective of the Japanese market, the main track of the Japanese stock market will also adjust with the US stock market. Technology stocks represented by Tokyo electronics, Hitachi, Fujitsu, Seiko Epson and Yaskawa Electric will also be adjusted; Among the value stocks, the non essential consumer stocks represented by Toyota Motor and Bridgestone, the essential consumer stocks represented by weizhisu and seven & I, and the financial stocks represented by Mitsubishi ufjfinancial group, Daiwa Securities Co., Ltd. and Eurex will be further adjusted. Considering the tightening of the liquidity of the Federal Reserve, it is expected that the stock markets of most emerging markets will still make significant adjustments in the future, and the pressure on the stock, bond and foreign exchange markets in many overseas emerging markets will further intensify. The Hong Kong stock market rebounded this week, and there were still large fluctuations during the week. Although the main decline in the Hong Kong stock market has passed for a long time, it is expected that it will take some time to start a new round of right-hand rise due to the high volatility of the peripheral market. Considering the current industry cycle, the Hang Seng technology index is likely to fluctuate repeatedly from the bottom seeking stage to a new round; On the other hand, the uncertainty of external objective factors for zhonggai shares will also affect the fluency of the recovery process of Hang Seng technology index to a certain extent from time to time. In view of the industry weight proportion in the Hong Kong stock index at this stage, it is expected that the volatility of Hang Seng technology index will still be higher than that of Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprise Index in the future. In addition, the main tracks of consumption, health care, real estate, raw materials and industry in the Hong Kong stock market will experience a period of repeated fluctuations at the bottom in the future. In view of the valuation advantages and good resilience of fundamentals, the volatility of large state-owned banks represented by the four major behaviors in Hong Kong stocks is small. In view of the current capital construction cycle and economic cycle, it is expected that the construction project will have a certain toughness in the medium term; Among them, the volatility of large state-owned infrastructure related enterprises is relatively small, and the related beneficiaries are China’s transportation construction, China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) etc.
Performance of US stock market in one week: all three major US stock indexes fell this week. The S & P 500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones industrial index fell 3.05%, 3.82% and 2.91% respectively.
Performance of Hong Kong stock market in one week: Hong Kong stock market rebounded this week. The Hang Seng Index, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index rose by 4.11%, 4.62% and 3.73% respectively. The Hang Seng technology index rose 6.08%.
Important overseas economic data: in May 2022, the PMI business activity index in New York was – 11.6, significantly lower than the previous value of 24.6.
Risk tip: the Fed’s monetary policy exceeded expectations; Economic growth is less than expected; The intensification of global geopolitical risks; Overseas epidemic control is less than expected; Global black swan event.
