Strategic view
On Thursday, after opening sharply lower in the morning, the three major stock indexes in Shanghai and Shenzhen struggled to lift, echoing new energy + steady growth. The three major stock indexes turned red at the end of the day and closed at a high of the day. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.36%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37%, the gem index rose 0.50%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 0.19%, the Shanghai 50 fell 0.04%, and the China Securities 500 rose 0.71%. There were 27536 companies, both lower than the previous week's trading value. The limit was 96, lower than the average value of 115 last week and 114 the previous trading day. The number of decliners in the two cities was 1804, higher than the average of 1475 last week and 1757 on the previous trading day. The number of drop limits was 8, lower than the average value of 30 last week and lower than 11 in the previous trading day. Northbound funds had a net inflow of 5.124 billion yuan, with an average net outflow of 1.831 billion yuan last week and a net outflow of 2.277 billion yuan the previous trading day. The turnover of the two cities was 806838 billion yuan, with an average value of 835223 billion yuan last week and 770643 billion yuan the previous trading day. At present, the long environment of A-Shares has ushered in essential changes. The bottom area of this round of adjustment has been basically clear. Although it is uncertain whether there will be a second step back, even if there is, it is a new allocation opportunity. Therefore, under this weak balance, the market has become relatively strong. In addition, the previous Politburo meeting set the tone of 5.5% economic growth. According to the GDP growth rate of 4.8% in the first quarter, if the GDP growth rate in the second quarter does not exceed 5.3%, it means that the GDP growth rate in the third and fourth quarters may exceed 6%. Therefore, in any case, the characteristics of China's economy from low to high will be particularly obvious. At the same time, from the perspective of rhythm, we believe that the high probability of April will be a low point of economic growth in the whole year, With the gradual increase of the follow-up steady growth policy, the marginal improvement signal of China's economic fundamentals data will be more and more clear. With the improvement of the economy, the supporting effect on A-Shares will be more obvious. It is expected to usher in a rare long environment in June, July and August.
Stock index futures trading strategy
Viewpoint: the discount of futures continues to narrow, and the short-term index fluctuates strongly
(1) on May 19, the positions of if, IH and IC contracts were 223100, 107600 and 352400 respectively, with a change of 1.59%, - 3.44% and 2.68% on a day-on-day basis;
(2) on May 19, the difference between the contract and spot price of if, IH and IC in the current month was -2.6 points, - 1.55 points and 2.39 points, which was 6.91 points, 0.78 points and 16.08 points higher than that of the previous trading day. Operation suggestion: if2206 mainly throws high and absorbs low, with support level of 3920 points and resistance level of 4010 points
Option trading strategy
Viewpoint: the PCR value remains low, and the short-term capital has insufficient momentum
(1) on May 19, the PCR (positions) of 50ETF option, Huatai 300etf option, harvest 300etf option and 300 stock index option were 0.76, 0.99, 1.13 and 0.79 respectively, and the PCR values of 50ETF and 300etf options remained low;
(2) on May 19, the implied volatility of 300etf option and 50ETF option were 21.2% and 20.9% respectively. The implied volatility of 300etf option and 50ETF option remained relatively high.
Operation suggestion: radical strategy: none at present; Steady strategy: buy a 300etf to buy the May 4000 option and sell a 300etf to buy the May 4100 option at the same time. The maximum return of a single portfolio is 703 yuan and the maximum loss is 297 yuan; Hedging strategy: None
Risk tips
1. Rapid cooling of market transactions; 2 short term panic continued to spread risk factors.
