Macro balance sheet: market recession expectations increase

Macro market:

[central bank] on May 19, in order to maintain the reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system, the central bank launched a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 10 billion yuan by means of interest rate bidding, with the bid winning interest rate of 2.10%. Today, the 10 billion yuan reverse repo is due, so the maturity is fully hedged on that day.

[finance] on May 19, most treasury bond futures closed up slightly, with 10-year main contracts up 0.08%, 5-year main contracts up 0.01% and 2-year main contracts down 0.01%. The yield of major inter-bank interest rate bonds rose. The yield of 10-year Guokai active bond 220205 rose 1.25bp to 3.0675%, the yield of 10-year Treasury bond 220003 rose 0.75bp to 2.8075%, and the yield of 5-year treasury bond 210011 rose 1.00bp to 2.525%.

[finance] on May 19, most money market interest rates rose slightly, and the supply of inter-bank funds was still abundant. The one-day interbank borrowing between banks and depositors was reported at 1.4247%, up 8.38 basis points; The 7-day report was 1.6560%, up 1.18 basis points; The 14 day report was 1.6991%, down 1.39 basis points; The one-month report was 1.8847%, down 38.75 basis points. The one-day varieties of inter bank pledged repo were reported at 1.3952%, up 6.85 basis points; The 7-day report was 1.5848%, up 2.98 basis points; The 14 day report was 1.7006%, up 6.11 basis points; The one-month report was 1.85%, up 20 basis points.

[enterprise] on May 19, most of the yields of credit bonds of various maturities declined, and the credit interest margin of medium and short-term bills of various maturities narrowed compared with the previous day. Today, 1392 inter-bank and exchange credit bonds (corporate bonds, corporate bonds, medium notes, short-term financing and directional instruments) were traded, with a total turnover of 115589 billion yuan. Among them, 949 credit bonds rose, 68 were flat and 341 fell.

[residents] on May 18, the number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large and medium-sized cities and first tier cities was + 0.49% and the area of commercial housing transactions was + 0.56% compared with the previous day; The number of commercial housing transactions in second tier cities was + 0.01% compared with the previous day, and the transaction area of commercial housing was + 0.01% compared with the previous day; The number of commercial housing transactions in third tier cities was + 0.23% and the transaction area of commercial housing was + 0.12% compared with the previous day.

[Economy] on May 18, the United Nations released the world economic situation and outlook in 2022, which lowered the global economic growth in 2022 to 3.1%, lower than the previous growth forecast of 4% released in January 2022.

Recent focus: the pre force of fiscal policy

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