Content summary:
In terms of macro economy, the data in April showed that the epidemic had a significant impact on the economy. From the demand side, the growth rate of fixed asset investment, consumption and export has decreased. Among them, consumption growth is in the negative growth range, infrastructure investment in fixed asset investment has fallen from a high level, and real estate investment has accelerated downward. The impact of the epidemic on China’s export chain has been strengthened. From the production side, the epidemic had a significant impact, especially the manufacturing, automobile and high-tech industries concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, with the largest decline in growth rate in the month. Overall, the downward pressure on the economy increased, the unemployment rate continued to rise in April, and the employment pressure was large. Steady growth policies still need to be introduced one after another. Recently, many cities have relaxed the purchase restriction policy, and the central bank has also adjusted the lower limit of mortgage interest rate, which is expected to boost real estate sales. Meanwhile, with the initial emergence of the inflection point of the epidemic in Shanghai and the gradual repair of logistics and industrial chain, the negative impact of the epidemic on the economy is expected to gradually weaken.
Since May, the interest rate has fluctuated at a low level. Dr07 has always been below the open market Omo operating interest rate, and the capital is loose. Looking back, the tightening of overseas monetary policy restricts the further easing of China’s monetary policy. However, the epidemic in China has not been fully controlled, and it still takes time for enterprises to resume work and production. Objectively, it is required that monetary policy cannot be tightened. It is expected to remain loose in the short term and introduce more structural policies.
Since late April, bond yields have declined slightly as a whole. From the perspective of economic fundamentals, the impact of the epidemic on the economy is significant. However, the inflection point of the epidemic in Shanghai has initially appeared, and the impact of the epidemic in June is expected to weaken. Monetary policy is mainly based on stable growth in the short term, and the capital market fluctuates greatly in the near future, which is expected to remain loose. The inter-bank certificate of deposit interest rate continued to decline, indicating that the capital side is relatively abundant, providing a favorable monetary environment for the bond market. However, looking back, the tightening of overseas monetary policy has gradually strengthened the constraints on the central bank. Under the condition of upside down interest rate spread between China and the United States, the pressure of capital outflow and the accelerated depreciation of exchange rate may have an impact on the independence of China’s monetary policy. On the whole, the broad currency will be maintained in the short term, and the upward risk of bond yield is small. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the range. Follow up attention will be paid to the marginal changes in economic recovery and monetary policy orientation after the inflection point of the epidemic. It is suggested that the trading order should operate in the middle band of the shock range, and the configuration order should intervene at every high level. The varieties of 7Y treasury bonds and government financial bonds are more prominent.
