Fiscal revenue fell sharply year-on-year, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of major taxes fell compared with the first quarter
The epidemic prompted the implementation of Dengjia retention tax rebate, the monthly general public budget revenue decreased significantly, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate was lower than that in the first quarter. In April, the national general public budget revenue was 1225.6 billion yuan, down 41.34% year-on-year and 22.60% month on month due to the repeated epidemic and the implementation of large-scale tax rebates. Among them, the central general public budget revenue was 562.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.37%, the local general public budget revenue was 663.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.44%, and the growth gap between central and local revenue narrowed by about 10 percentage points to 1.93% compared with the previous month. In April, the national general public budget revenue was 7429.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.80%, an increase of 5% after excluding the impact of tax rebate, which was 3.6 percentage points lower than that of Yidu. Among them, the central general public budget revenue was 3457.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.70%, the local general public budget revenue was 3972.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.90%, and the cumulative year-on-year growth gap of central and local revenue narrowed by about 10 percentage points to 1.80% compared with the first quarter.
The monthly tax revenue was significantly weaker, and the growth rate of major taxes was lower than that in the first quarter. In April, the national tax revenue was 986.7 billion yuan, down 47.31% year-on-year and 15.23% month on month. Among them, the value-added tax rebate offset income in April was 800 billion yuan, and the final income was - 155.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 124.67%, which was greatly affected by the tax rebate policy; Affected by the epidemic, the enterprise income tax revenue was 644.6 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.30% year-on-year. In addition, the scale of non tax revenue increased by 10.30% year-on-year to 238.9 billion yuan, down 4.57 percentage points from the first quarter. In April, the tax revenue totaled 6231.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.60%, 15.30 percentage points lower than that of Yidu. Under the impact of the epidemic, the tax revenue was significantly weakened due to the implementation of Dengjia, the main tax body, and the large-scale tax rebate. Specifically, the value-added tax decreased by 28.90% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 32.50 percentage points compared with the first quarter; Although consumption tax, enterprise income tax and individual income tax maintained year-on-year growth, the growth rate decreased compared with the first quarter, falling by 0.3, 4.4 and 5.1 percentage points respectively.
The marginal strength of fiscal expenditure weakened, the public health expenditure accelerated under the disturbance of the epidemic, and the marginal support for infrastructure fell
The scale of monthly fiscal expenditure fell as a whole, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of expenditure increased slightly. In April, the national general public budget expenditure was 1734.6 billion yuan, down 1.96% year-on-year and 31.60% month on month. The overall scale of expenditure fell. Among them, the central general public budget expenditure was 283.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.61%; The general public budget expenditure at the local level was 1451.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.81%, or related to the progress of fund allocation affected by the impact of the epidemic. The growth gap between central and local expenditure narrowed by about 4.98 percentage points to 5.42% compared with the same period last year. In April, the total expenditure of the national general public budget was 8093.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.90%, but the growth rate was 2.4 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter. Among them, the total expenditure of the central level was 963.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.00%, with a growth rate of 0.5 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter; The cumulative expenditure at the local level was 7129.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.10%, down 2.7 percentage points from the first quarter, and the gap between the cumulative year-on-year growth of central and local expenditure narrowed by about 3.20 percentage points to 1.10% from the first quarter.
As a result of the outbreak, health expenditure has increased significantly, and financial support for infrastructure has weakened. In April, social security and employment remained the focus of expenditure; Under the low base, the expenditure on agriculture, forestry and water affairs increased by 28.36% year-on-year, and the expenditure on health under the influence of the epidemic increased by 12.51% year-on-year; Education, social security and employment decreased year-on-year, by 4.89% and 10.55% respectively. In April, the expenditure on people's livelihood continued to grow. The expenditure on education, social security, employment and health increased by 4.10%, 4.40% and 7.50% respectively year-on-year. However, except for health expenditure, the growth rate slowed down compared with the first quarter; Infrastructure related expenditures also maintained growth, with expenditures on agriculture, forestry and water, transportation and urban and rural communities increasing by 1290%, 720% and 3.60% respectively. However, except that the growth rate of agriculture, forestry and water expenditure rebounded by 4.5 percentage points compared with the first quarter, the growth rate of other expenditures slowed down, and there is still room for infrastructure development. In addition, from January to April, the debt interest payment expenditure decreased by 0.10% year-on-year, the growth rate was the same as that in the first quarter, and the interest payment pressure was still large.
The land transfer was sluggish, the budget revenue of government funds continued to decline, and the growth rate of expenditure was dragged down by the slowdown in the issuance of special bonds
The decline in land transfer income further expanded, and the budget income of government funds continued to decline year-on-year. From January to April, the budget income of national government funds was 1756.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.60%, an increase of 2 percentage points over the first quarter and 64.2 percentage points over the same period last year. The income scale was lower than the level during the epidemic in 2020, a decrease of 1.15% over the same period in 2020. Among them, the budgetary revenue of central government funds was 111 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.40%, an increase of 38.2 percentage points over the same period last year; The budget revenue of local government funds was 1645.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.80%, an increase of 65.6 percentage points over the same period last year; The revenue growth trend of central and local government funds continued to differentiate. The central decline narrowed compared with the first quarter, the local decline expanded compared with the first quarter, and the local decline was still greater than that of the central government. The gap between the two widened by about 6 percentage points to 24.4 percentage points compared with the first quarter. From the composition of the budget revenue of local government funds at the same level, the revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights was 1501.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.80%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points over the first quarter, accounting for 91.23% of the budget revenue of local government funds, down about 1 percentage point compared with the first quarter and the same period last year. From the perspective of the land market, in April, a multi-dimensional policy of "stabilizing the property market" was introduced in many places. At the same time, the first round of centralized land supply continued. The land market increased slightly compared with the previous month, and the transaction area and transaction price of the land market rose by 14.68% and 21.33% month on month. However, due to the lack of significant improvement in the financing side and demand side of real estate enterprises, the willingness of real estate enterprises to acquire land is still not strong, and the land market has not yet fully warmed up, In April, although the transaction area of the land market rebounded year-on-year, the total transaction price still fell year-on-year. Recently, policies such as "supporting rigid and improved housing demand" and the adjustment of differentiated housing credit policy have released positive signals. With the subsequent marginal adjustment of policies, the downturn situation of the land market is expected to improve. However, under the tone of "no speculation in housing and housing", it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the drag of the cold land market on land transfer income.
The growth rate of budget expenditure of government funds with special bond issuance fell, and the central expenditure increased significantly. From January to April, the budget expenditure of national government funds was 314888 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.20%. Dragged down by the slowdown in the issuance of special bonds, the year-on-year growth rate was 7.8 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter. Among them, the expenditure of central government funds was 95.6 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 360.00% under the low base. The growth rate was more than 300 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter and the same period last year, or it was related to the significant year-on-year increase of central government budget expenditure arranged in this year's budget; The budget expenditure of local government funds was 3053.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.30%, and the growth rate was 10.6 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter. Among them, the expenditure related to the income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights was 1942.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.60%, and the decline was 4.1 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter.
The growth gap between central and local expenditure was significantly expanded by about 315 percentage points to 327.7 percentage points compared with the first quarter. With the accelerated pace of subsequent special bond issuance, the recovery of the growth rate of government fund expenditure will be a high probability event.
The issuance of new local bonds will be significantly released, and the pace of subsequent local bond issuance will be greatly accelerated
Total issuance: in April, a total of 92 local bonds were issued, the issuance scale decreased by 54.06% to 284206 billion yuan month on month compared with March, and the net financing decreased by 70.72% to 147521 billion yuan month on month. In terms of issuance structure, the issuance scale of new bonds decreased by 75.47% month on month to 120795 billion yuan, including 103829 billion yuan of special bonds and 16.966 billion yuan of general bonds; The issuance scale of refinancing bonds increased by 29.56% month on month to 163411 billion yuan, including 86.003 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds and 77.409 billion yuan of general refinancing bonds. In April, the issuance of local bonds, especially new bonds, was relatively weak, but the overall issuance progress from January to April was still faster than that in the same period of previous years. Under the background that the Ministry of finance required to basically complete the issuance of new bonds by the end of June, it is expected that the issuance rhythm of new bonds in May and June will be greatly accelerated. In April, 681 local bonds were issued, with a total scale of 2108826 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.20%. The cumulative issuance of new bonds was 1690944 billion yuan, 94.57% of the quota issued in advance (1788 billion yuan) and 38.69% of the annual quota (4370 billion yuan), of which the cumulative issuance of new general bonds was 289053 billion yuan and 40.15% of the annual quota (720 billion yuan); A total of 1401891 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, accounting for 38.41% of the annual limit (3650 billion yuan). A total of 417882 billion yuan of refinancing bonds were issued, including 167961 billion yuan of general refinancing bonds and 249921 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds.
Issuance period: in April, the weighted average issuance period of local bonds was shortened from 14.72 years last month to 11.08 years. The issuance scale of 10-year local bonds was the largest, reaching 81.968 billion yuan, and the period of 10 years and above accounted for 54.10%, followed by 5-year and 7-year bonds, with the issuance scale exceeding 30 billion yuan. In April, the average issuance period of local bonds was slightly shortened to 14.17 years compared with 14.59 years in the first quarter, including 15.74 years of special bonds and 8.50 years of general bonds.
Issuing region: in April, 16 provinces issued local bonds, with Henan Province issuing the largest amount of 54.422 billion yuan, and Beijing, Jiangsu and Heilongjiang issuing more than 30 billion yuan. In April, 31 provinces issued local bonds, of which Guangdong, Shandong and Beijing issued large-scale bonds, all exceeding 150 billion yuan.
