Giving full play to the dual functions of aggregate and structure of monetary policy tools plays an important role in the real economy;
The monetary policy report for the first quarter of 2022 proposed that structural monetary policy tools should actively do a good job in "addition", guide financial institutions to make reasonable loans, and promote the preference of financial resources to key areas, weak links and enterprises and industries seriously affected by the epidemic;
As one of the structural monetary policy tools, refinancing has a clear space at this stage;
Refinancing can be divided into liquidity refinancing, credit policy support refinancing, financial stability refinancing and special policy refinancing. In recent years, the establishment of special policy refinancing has become more and more diverse, such as special refinancing for scientific and technological innovation and special refinancing for supporting clean and efficient utilization of coal, so as to provide accurate and targeted financial support for relevant industries;
According to the financial data in April, residential housing loans decreased by 60.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 402.2 billion yuan, or roughly corresponding to medium and long-term loans, the decrease was further expanded compared with February, and the year-on-year decrease was also slightly lower than the level in February, indicating that the market demand side of real estate is still low;
According to the economic data in April, the funds in place of real estate development enterprises decreased by 35.4% year-on-year in the same month, and the decline expanded. Among them, China's loans decreased by 28.0% year-on-year; Self raised funds decreased by 6.5% year-on-year; Deposit advance receipts decreased by 53.1% year-on-year; Personal mortgage decreased by 42.2% year-on-year;
At this stage, how to promote the inclination of financial resources to the real estate field and open up the virtuous circle of the real estate market is very important;
We believe that special policy refinancing can play an important role, provide relevant funds for the acquisition of real estate projects, provide refinancing support for financial institutions, and promote the healthy development of the real estate industry.
For the establishment of special refinancing for real estate projects, there are the following thoughts:
First, in terms of distribution objects, it can include policy banks, commercial banks and asset management companies (AMC). Among them, banks provide M & A loans for high-quality real estate enterprises and encourage the acquisition of high-quality projects of difficult real estate enterprises; AMC has rich experience in the disposal of non-performing assets, and adopts high-quality project mergers and acquisitions to provide liquidity support to real estate enterprises and cooperate with the rescue of real estate enterprises.
Second, in terms of the division of the scope of support, it can be considered that the relevant departments should first define the screening criteria for real estate enterprises and specific projects, and then financial institutions should make loans to projects that meet the standards. According to our summary, the scope of support may involve high-quality projects of real estate enterprises with credit risk events, high debt repayment pressure and large sales decline.
Third, the scale of special refinancing for real estate projects is estimated by estimating the financing scale of real estate M & A in the whole year and the coverage ratio of special refinancing for real estate projects to the financing scale of M & A. Under different scenarios, the amount of refinancing may fall in the range of 33.20-66.4 billion yuan.
Risk prompt event: 1. Risk of policy change. 2. The estimation of refinancing scale is based on certain assumptions and the inductive analysis of public historical data. The relevant conclusions have certain limitations and are for reference only. 3. The risk that the information and data used in the research report are not updated in time.
