As of May 15 this year, the capital pattern of A-Shares has been in tight balance since the beginning of the year. 1) According to our incomplete statistics, since the beginning of the year, the net outflow of A-share funds has been 9.4 billion yuan, accounting for 0.02% of the free circulation market value. The micro liquidity of A-share is still in a tight balance. 2) In terms of sub items, although several net capital outflow items slowed down slightly, it is still difficult to offset the drag of capital inflow items. Since the beginning of the year, the financing balance, northbound funds and other projects have been significantly weaker than those in the same period of previous years, which has a great drag on micro liquidity.
In April, the net capital inflow continued to weaken, and leveraged funds and equity financing were the main drag. 1) The proportion of accumulated net inflow in the free circulation market value in the past 12 months has fallen for seven consecutive months, and the reading by the end of April was - 0.78%, a new low since the second half of 2020. 2) From the perspective of sub projects, the financing balance decreased by 147 billion yuan in April, the largest monthly decline after the circuit breaker event in 2016; In April, the scale of equity financing reached 184 billion yuan, exceeding the monthly average of the past three years.
The decline in the number of new accounts opened in April was much greater than seasonal. 1) In April, the number of new accounts opened by SSE was 2.15 million, down 1.8 million from March. 2) Compared with historical data, the decline in the number of new accounts opened in April was much more than seasonal. The number of new accounts opened in March was only lower than that in the same period of 2016 and 2021, while the number of new accounts opened in April fell to a low level since 2015, only higher than that in the same period of 2018 and 2017.
The financing balance decreased significantly in April, mainly due to the decline of the stock market. 1) The financing balance in April decreased by 147 billion yuan month on month, the largest monthly decline in the past five years. 2) The proportion of financing balance in the circulating market value fluctuated widely in April. There has been a sharp decline in the stock market, and the decline of financing balance in the same period is basically consistent with that of the stock market. 3) Since May, there have been no significant signs of leveraged funds entering the market. As of May 15, the financing balance rose slightly by 10 billion yuan at the end of April, and the recovery rate was less than that of the stock market.
The share increment of partial stock public funds tends to be stable. 1) In April, the shares of partial stock public funds increased by 64 billion month on month. The growth rates in 2021 and 2020 were 30 billion and 15 billion respectively. Although the share increment of partial share public funds failed to achieve a "good start" in the first quarter of this year, the share increment in April was not bad compared with previous years. 2) As of May 15, the shares of partial share public funds increased by 242 billion compared with the end of last year. If converted into the whole year by month, it is expected that the share of partial equity public funds in the whole year is expected to increase by 650 billion, which is lower than that in 2020 and 2021, but better than that in 2018 and 2019.
The attitude of industrial capital is positive, and the repurchase amount has increased month by month since the beginning of the year. The amount of listed repurchase reached 22 billion yuan in April, up from 20 billion yuan in March. The average monthly net repurchase scale in 2021 and 2020 was 17 billion yuan and 6.8 billion yuan respectively. The repurchase scale in April was higher than the monthly average of previous years.
Risk factors: there is a time lag in the publication of some data; The estimation of some projects deviates from the actual situation.
