In April, the economy was deeply affected by the epidemic, the year-on-year increase in labor increased from an increase to a decrease, and the year-on-year decrease of social zero deepened; The positive contribution of fixed investment to the economy has increased; Pay attention to the potential impact of higher unemployment on consumption.
In April, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value decreased by 2.9%, and the year-on-year growth rate of manufacturing industrial added value decreased by 4.6%, which is an important reason for the year-on-year decline of industrial added value. The year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value of high-tech industry was only 4%, down 9.8 percentage points from March, and the growth rate fell the most.
In April, the year-on-year growth rate of social zero decreased by 11.1%. After deducting price factors, the year-on-year growth rate of social zero actually decreased by 14.02%. The consumption elasticity of residents has decreased significantly. First, the proportion of consumption of daily necessities has increased. Second, the growth rate of consumption of flexible consumer goods has decreased greatly. Third, the post cycle consumption of real estate is OK, but the automobile consumption has declined sharply due to the influence of both supply and demand.
From January to April, the growth rate of fixed asset investment was 6.8%, of which the growth rate of private fixed asset investment was 5.3%. In April, the growth rate of fixed investment in infrastructure construction was 3% year-on-year, the growth rate of manufacturing investment was 6.4%, and the growth rate of real estate investment decreased by 10.1% year-on-year. We need to pay attention to the situation that the growth rate of foreign fixed asset investment in April fell sharply by 5.1 percentage points compared with that from January to March, and whether foreign fixed asset investment will stabilize and recover in May.
From January to April, the growth rate of real estate investment decreased by 2.7%, the growth rate of residential investment decreased by 2.1%, the cumulative land purchase area and land transaction price decreased by 46.5% and 20.6% respectively year-on-year, the cumulative new construction area decreased by 26.3% year-on-year, and the construction area was flat. The sales area of commercial housing decreased by 20.9% year-on-year, and the cumulative sales of commercial housing decreased by 29.5% year-on-year. There was still pressure on the growth rate of real estate investment in May.
The downward trend of economic data in April was expected by the market, but the impact of the epidemic was significantly higher than expected. There were few bright spots in the economic data in April. Compared with the market expectation, the industrial added value changed from up to down year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate of social zero fell sharply, both lower than the market expectation. Although the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment exceeded the market expectation, from the perspective of the month, the growth rate of infrastructure and manufacturing investment decreased significantly compared with March, and the year-on-year decline of real estate investment growth in the month deepened. The decline of economic data in April was mainly affected by the epidemic. From the month on month perspective, the industrial added value in April decreased by 7.08% month on month, and the fixed investment decreased by 0.82% month on month. The month on month decline of both was less than that in February 2020. However, the month on month decline in March and April was 1.97% and 0.69% respectively. From the initial value, it was the first consecutive month on month decline since the data were available in 2011. Considering that the national urban survey unemployment rate was 6.1% in April and 6.7% in 31 major cities, we still need to pay attention to the possible weakness of consumption rebound after the epidemic.
In order to achieve the annual economic growth target, the steady growth policy needs to be strengthened. The impact of China's epidemic on economic growth in the second quarter is significantly greater than that in the first quarter in terms of time and scope. Therefore, the market has expected that the actual GDP growth rate in the second quarter will further decline compared with 4.8%. Considering the signs of weakness in domestic and foreign demand, the driving force that can effectively drive the recovery of GDP growth in the second half of the year may mainly come from the production side and fixed asset investment. It is expected that the next policy will start from these two aspects. From the production side, the policies that can be implemented include ensuring the stability of the supply chain, ensuring the supply and price of bulk raw materials, and reducing the financing and operating costs of market players; In terms of fixed asset investment, first, we should continue to promote industrial upgrading and stabilize manufacturing investment. Second, we should continue to accelerate the landing of infrastructure investment. Third, we should effectively stabilize the bottom recovery of the growth rate of real estate investment. The policy adjustments most concerned by the market in the short term include whether the LPR interest rate was lowered in May and whether there are special bond issuance arrangements under the pressure of fiscal revenue.
Risk tip: global inflation is rising too fast; Liquidity flows back to US debt; The global covid-19 epidemic has expanded its impact.
