Event:
From January to April 2022, the national general public budget revenue was 7429.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%; The general public budget expenditure was 8093.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. From January to April, the national government fund budget revenue was 1756.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.6%; The budget expenditure of national government funds was 314888 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.2%.
Core summary:
Tax rebates and the epidemic dragged down public revenue, and the growth rate of non tax revenue continued to be high. In terms of tax categories: 1) driven by the high price of bulk commodities, the year-on-year growth rate of resource tax is the highest. 2) The growth rate of land and real estate related taxes fell rapidly, down from 10.6% in March to - 22.0% in the same month, which is consistent with the sluggish trend of land primary market and commercial housing transactions. 3) The growth rate of China's consumption tax rebounded against the trend, which may be due to the large year-on-year fluctuation of consumption tax itself, the fact that it is mostly levied in production rather than consumption, and the relatively small impact of the epidemic on luxury consumption such as tobacco and alcohol. 4) The high growth rate of enterprise income tax slowed down. Due to the lag of tax, it is not ruled out that the growth rate of enterprise income tax further decreased in May. 5) The growth rate of individual income tax picked up at a low level. As the growth rate of individual income tax is usually higher than that of the overall tax, but the former was lower in April this year, which may be related to the impact of the epidemic on the income of some personnel. 6) Tax rebate is a big drag on VAT income. In April, the offset income of value-added tax rebate was 800 billion. Affected by this, the value-added tax income of that month was - 155.5 billion.
Public financial support for infrastructure has weakened. In April, the growth rate of public financial expenditure turned negative. From the perspective of central and local governments, the growth rate of central financial expenditure increased and the growth rate of local financial expenditure decreased. Possible reasons include the impact of the epidemic in many places on the allocation and use of financial funds, the impact of tax rebates on local financial resources, etc. Compared with the same period in recent years, the use of deficit in the first four months of this year has made rapid progress. The epidemic has an impact on both ends of public financial revenue and expenditure, restricting the space for follow-up financial development. Public finance's support for infrastructure has weakened. First, the four expenditure items related to infrastructure fell to 2.4% year-on-year from 8.4% in March; Second, the proportion of infrastructure expenditure decreased to 19.8% from 21.4% in March, which is the lowest in recent years.
The income and expenditure of government funds have slowed down. The year-on-year decline of the main real estate data in April is expanding, and the income growth of land transfer fees and government funds may not have bottomed out. Subject to the decline of land transfer income and the weakening of the dislocation effect of the time point of special bond allocation, the government fund expenditure slowed down to 12.5% from 69.1% in March. In the first quarter, the progress difference between the collection and expenditure of government funds and the completion of the annual budget was - 4.8%, which was significantly lower than the average of 5.8% in the same period of the previous four years. The downturn of the primary land market is expected to restrict the development space of government fund expenditure in the year.
Steady Fiscal growth needs to be more active, especially national debt. Fiscal policy in 2022 plays a pillar role in counter cyclical regulation. While the epidemic has impacted on fiscal revenue, the demands of steady growth and normalized epidemic prevention on fiscal expenditure have increased. In addition, tax rebates and the downturn of the land market, if there are no incremental tools such as special treasury bonds, the active fiscal force during the year may face greater constraints. At present, the necessity of issuing special treasury bonds this year has increased, possibly in the third quarter.
