In April, the growth rate of fiscal revenue and expenditure turned negative. From the revenue side, the fiscal revenue was dragged down by the downward growth rate of tax revenue, with a growth rate of more than - 40%. On the one hand, due to the impact of the large-scale retention and tax rebate of value-added tax and other delayed tax payment policies implemented since April, the tax rebate in the current month accounted for about 37.5% of the national revenue in the same period last year, which correspondingly reduced the growth rate of fiscal revenue. However, even after deducting the tax rebate, the growth rate of tax revenue still hit a new low this year, indicating that the epidemic has increased the impact on the economy, affecting the collection of fiscal revenue. From the expenditure side, the decline of fiscal expenditure growth is mainly dragged down by the decline of local expenditure growth. On the one hand, the decline of fiscal revenue growth restricts the expenditure side; On the other hand, the issuance of local bonds has slowed down, which also has an impact on expenditure. On the whole, even excluding the impact of tax rebate, the growth rate of fiscal revenue in the first four months of this year has been lower than that of expenditure. The decline in the growth rate of government fund revenue is still expanding, and the contradiction between fiscal revenue and expenditure is further highlighted. Looking forward to the future, with the continuous promotion of tax reduction and fee reduction, the policy requires that most of the issuance of local special bonds be completed in the first half of the year, and the annual fiscal probability presents a situation of "overspending and less income".
In April, the growth rate of fiscal revenue turned negative. From January to April, the growth rate of national fiscal revenue recorded - 4.8%, an increase of 5% after deducting the factors of tax rebate, which is still higher than the target growth rate of annual fiscal revenue budget (3.8%). In April, the growth rate of fiscal revenue fell sharply to - 41.3%, the lowest since 2015. After deducting the factors of tax rebate, the growth rate of revenue was - 5.9%, still the lowest in the year. Among them, the growth rate of central and local fiscal revenue both fell to - 42.4% and - 40.3%. After the adjustment of tax rebate caliber, the decline of central revenue growth narrowed to - 4%, and the growth rate of local revenue changed from positive to negative to - 6.6%, a new low in the year. In April, the growth rate of tax revenue fell to - 47.3% synchronously, and the growth rate recorded - 6.6% after the adjustment of tax rebate caliber, which was also the lowest in the year. The growth rate of non tax income fell back to 10.3%. In April, the growth rate of national fiscal revenue and tax revenue decreased by more than - 40%. On the one hand, the tax rebate of value-added tax that has been implemented since April has significantly reduced fiscal revenue. On the other hand, even excluding the impact of tax rebate, the growth rate of fiscal revenue and tax revenue has also decreased by more than - 5%, which also hit a new low in the year, confirming the deepening impact of the epidemic on the economy in April.
The growth rate of itemized income increased less and fell more. Among the main income items in April, the growth rate of value-added tax revenue expanded to - 125%. After deducting the factors of retention and tax rebate, the growth rate decreased to - 3.5% compared with March, or affected by the lower base in the same period last year. In the context of the significant decline in the base last year, the growth rate of consumption tax income increased, and the decline in the growth rate of personal income tax income narrowed. The growth rate of enterprise income tax dropped significantly and fell to the negative growth range. The growth rate of import value-added tax and consumption tax decreased, which confirmed that the import growth rate was still low in April. Under the requirements of stabilizing foreign trade, the growth rate of export tax rebate was still upward when the base figure was higher last year. The growth rate of land and real estate related taxes generally declined, and most of them recorded negative growth. Among them, the growth rate of deed tax and land value-added tax, which account for a relatively high proportion, decreased by more than - 30%, both of which hit a new low since 2019.
In April, the growth rate of expenditure turned negative simultaneously. From January to April, the growth rate of fiscal expenditure recorded 5.9%, which is still far from the budget target of 8.4% of the growth rate of fiscal expenditure in the whole year. In April, the growth rate of fiscal expenditure in the month changed significantly from 10.3% in the previous month to - 2.1%, a new low in the year. Among them, the growth rate of central expenditure is still rising when the base is low, recording 6.2%, and the growth rate of local expenditure has significantly turned negative to - 3.3%, which is also a new low in the year. The negative growth rate of fiscal expenditure in April was mainly dragged down by the decline in the growth rate of local expenditure. The progress of local bond issuance slowed down in April, only about 3 percentage points higher than that in March. The downward growth rate of fiscal revenue also dragged down expenditure.
The growth rate of itemized expenditure mostly fell. In April, the growth rate of itemized expenditure mostly fell, and only the growth rate of expenditure on agriculture, forestry, water affairs and sanitation and health increased. Affected by the spread of epidemic throughout the country, the growth rate of expenditure on health and health recorded 12.5% in April, a new high since March 2021. The growth rate of other sub items of expenditure generally fell and recorded negative growth. Among them, the growth rate of livelihood expenditure such as sports and media, science and technology, education, social security and employment, and infrastructure related expenditure such as urban and rural communities and transportation decreased by more than 15 percentage points compared with the growth rate in March.
The growth rate of fund income decreased more. From January to April, the revenue growth rate of government funds recorded - 27.6%, far lower than the annual budget target value of 0.6%. The growth rate continued to decline to - 34.2% in April. In April, the growth rate of central revenue decreased from negative to positive to 9.4%, the growth rate of local revenue increased to - 36.3%, and the growth rate of land transfer revenue decreased to - 37.8%, which confirmed that the growth rate of national land purchase area continued to decline in April, and the land transaction situation was still poor.
Risk tip: policy changes, economic recovery is less than expected.
