According to the CME target interest rate forecast, the market predicts that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in March and may will rise rapidly, and the probability of raising interest rates in January will gradually decline as the meeting approaches. On January 13, the market expected the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in January to be 3.1%, while the market predicted the probability of raising interest rates on December 13 to be 9.1%, which continued to decline in the past month. Contrary to the expectation of the target interest rate in January, with the hawkish information released from the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting in December digested, the market expects the probability of raising interest rates in March to rise rapidly, but the extreme pessimism has decreased. At present, the market expects the probability of interest rate increase at the interest rate meeting on March 16 to be as high as 85.7%. Among them, the probability of one interest rate increase is predicted to be 83.1%, and the probability of two interest rate increases is 2.6%. A week ago (January 5, the day when the minutes of the December meeting of the Federal Reserve were released), the market predicted that the probability of raising interest rates once was 70.7%, and the probability of raising interest rates twice was 4.6%. At present, compared with a week ago, the probability of one interest rate increase is gradually increased, while the probability of two interest rate increases in March is decreased.
According to the CME target interest rate forecast, the market predicts that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in March and may will rise rapidly, and the probability of raising interest rates in January will gradually decline as the meeting approaches. On January 13, the market expected the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in January to be 3.1%, while the market predicted the probability of raising interest rates on December 13 to be 9.1%, which continued to decline in the past month. Contrary to the expectation of the target interest rate in January, with the hawkish information released from the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting in December digested, the market expects the probability of raising interest rates in March to rise rapidly, but the extreme pessimism has decreased. At present, the market expects the probability of interest rate increase at the interest rate meeting on March 16 to be as high as 85.7%. Among them, the probability of one interest rate increase is predicted to be 83.1%, and the probability of two interest rate increases is 2.6%. A week ago (January 5, the day when the minutes of the December meeting of the Federal Reserve were released), the market predicted that the probability of raising interest rates once was 70.7%, and the probability of raising interest rates twice was 4.6%. At present, compared with a week ago, the probability of one interest rate increase is gradually increased, while the probability of two interest rate increases in March is decreased.
The risk premium of A-Shares in this period is 0.51%, which is 0.01% higher than that in the previous period. The overall profitability of A-Shares improved significantly, PE continued to revise downward, and the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds was 2.80% in the current period, which continued to maintain the investment value of A-share risk premium.
In this period, the overall risk premium of the cycle sector still maintained a high allocation value: pharmaceutical and biological erp0 09%, 0.06% lower than the previous period, in the allocation range with high risk premium; The national defense and military industry erp-1.28%, a change of 0.06% over the previous period, is in the neutral normal configuration range of risk premium. In this period, iron and steel Erp10 50%, an increase of 2.74% over the previous period, in the neutral and high allocation range of risk premium; Nonferrous Metals erp3 46%, an increase of 2.83% over the previous period, in the highest allocation range of risk premium.
In terms of large and medium disk rotation, the price ratio of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 to China Stock Exchange 500 generally showed a downward trend from 1.13 in mid February to the end of April. After a short recovery in May, it continued to show a downward trend, and the ratio in this period decreased from 0.816 in the previous period to 0.814. The mid market continued to show strength over the market. In terms of large and small disk rotation, the price ratio between CSI 300 and Guozheng 2000 has generally shown a downward trend since mid February (this year’s high of 0.85). After a short recovery in May, it has continued to show a downward trend, and the ratio in this period has decreased from 0.509 in the previous period to 0.503. Small cap continues to be stronger than the overall market trend.
In the current period, the dividend yield of Wande quana changed from 1.46% in the previous period to 1.46% in the current period. The ten-year Treasury bond yield Wande quana dividend yield was 1.34%, and the distance from the warning value of 2.5% (the highest point of the bull market in the past) changed from 115.70bp in the previous period to 116.43bp in the current period. The dividend yield of SSE 50 changed from 1.47% in the previous period to 1.46% in the current period. The yield of ten-year Treasury bonds – the dividend yield of SSE 50 was 0.2088%, and the distance from the warning value of 1.1% changed from 87.42bp in the previous period to 89.12bp in the current period. The dividend yield of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 changed from 2.59% in the previous period to 2.58% in the current period. The yield of ten-year Treasury bonds – dividend yield of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 0.8396%, and the distance from the warning value of 1.8% changed from 96.50bp in the previous period to 96.04bp in the current period. The dividend yield of CSI 500 changed from 1.96% in the previous period to 1.95% in the current period. The yield of ten-year Treasury bond – dividend yield of CSI 500 was 1.3414%, and the distance from the warning value of 3% changed from 165.86bp in the previous period to 167.04bp in the current period.
