Core conclusion
① the performance of all a is under pressure. The profits of all a in the single quarter of 22q1 / 21q4 / 21q3 are 3.6% / – 9.4% / – 1.4% and 8.2% / – 30.3% / – 6.2% respectively year-on-year. ② The growth rate of growth value and profit fell, and the differentiation between the two intensified. The net profit of 22q1 was – 32.1% / 1.5% year-on-year on GEM and SSE 50, and the difference between the two expanded from 9.4pct of 21q4 to 33.6pct. ③ In 22q1, more than half of the industry’s profits grew negatively, with the growth rate of cycle and growth sectors ranking the top, and nonferrous metals, coal, transportation, power equipment, medicine and biology ranking the top 5. ④ Considering the epidemic situation, inflation and other factors, the annual profit growth rate of all a and all a (non-financial) was reduced to neutral – 2.2% / – 10.2% and pessimistic – 8.5% / – 20.3%. Q2 was the low point of annual profit growth, but the rebound in the second half of the year was limited. ⑤ According to the prediction by sectors, we expect that the annual performance of consumption and other sectors is increasing. After the downward revision of the prediction, the current cycle and consumption dynamic valuation are at the center of nearly three years, and the valuation of manufacturing, TMT and other sectors is still at a high level.
Text summary
In 2021q4, the net profit attributable to parent a continued to decline by – 9.4% year-on-year in a single quarter, and increased slightly by 3.6% year-on-year in 2022q1. ① The cumulative net profit attributable to the parent company of all A-Shares in 2022q1 / 2021q4 / 2021q3 was 3.6% / 18.1% / 25.1% respectively year-on-year; Excluding finance, it is 8.1% / 25.4% / 38.1%. The year-on-year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company of all A-Shares in a single quarter was 3.6% / – 9.4% / – 1.4% respectively, and 8.2% / – 30.3% / – 6.2% after excluding finance. ② On the whole, China’s macro fundamentals have weakened since the fourth quarter of last year. At the same time, multiple impacts such as high commodity prices and repeated outbreaks in China have had an adverse impact on the operation of listed companies. We expect that the spreading Omicron epidemic since the first quarter will bring great uncertainty to the economy and corporate profits. Therefore, we reduce the forecast of the growth rate of all a / all a (non-financial) parent net profit in 2022 to neutral – 2.2% / – 10.2% Pessimistic – 8.5% / – 20.3%. ③ The net profit attributable to the parent company was split according to the income statement. The growth rate of 22q1 revenue was a drag on the profit, and the gross profit margin and three fee rate were slightly improved.
2022q1roe (TTM) continued to fall to 9.3% and 8.9% after excluding finance. ① In 2022q1 / 2021q4 / 2021q3, the roe of all A-Shares (TTM, overall method, the same below) is 9.3% / 9.7% / 9.8%, and 8.9% / 9.2% / 9.3% after excluding finance. Throughout the year, the subsequent economic downward pressure is still large, and the roe of A-Shares may be under pressure. We expect that the roe of all A-Shares in the whole year may be 9% – 9.5%. ② DuPont disassembled roe, which was mainly dragged down by the decline of net interest rate and turnover efficiency. The net profit margin (TTM) of all A-Shares in 22q1 continued to decline compared with 21q4, and that of 2022q1 / 2021q4 / 2021q3 was 8.35% / 8.40% / 8.53%; The asset turnover rate decreased to 0.189/0.197/0.192 times in 2022q1 / 2021q4 / 2021q3; The asset liability ratio is stable, and the asset liability ratio of all A-Shares 2022q1 / 2021q4 / 2021q3 is 83.0% / 83.0% / 83.3%.
22q1 growth value differentiation intensified, and the profit growth of resource products, new power and medicine ranked first. ① From the broad-based index, the growth rate of growth value and profit fell, and the differentiation between the two intensified. Gem refers to the net profit of 2022q1, a year-on-year decrease of – 32.1%, compared with 7.0% in 21 years; The net profit of SSE 50 was 1.5% year-on-year, also down from 16.4% in 21 years. The profit growth difference between the two increased from 9.4pct in 21q4 to 33.6pct, and the differentiation of growth value style and performance intensified. ② In 2022q1, more than half of the industry’s profits grew negatively, and the growth rate of cycle and growth sectors ranked first, with nonferrous metals (123.1%), coal (82.4%), transportation (41.1%), power equipment (31.7%), medicine and Biology (27.8%).
Cut the annual profit growth of all a and all a (non-financial) to neutral – 2.2% / – 10.2%, pessimistic – 8.5% / – 20.3%. ① From top to bottom, reduce the growth rate of all a and all a (non-financial) net profit attributable to parent company in 2022 to neutral – 2.4% / – 10.6%, pessimistic – 9.0% / – 21.4%. ② By Sector aggregation, the growth rate of all a and all a (non-financial) net profit attributable to parent company in 2022 was reduced to neutral – 2.2% / – 10.2%, pessimistic – 8.5% / – 20.3%. ③ After the downward revision of the forecast, in 2022, the dynamic PE (overall method), the middle and downstream manufacturing will be 45 times (99% quantile in recent three years, the same below), and tmt49 The valuation of 5x (73%) and other 19.6x (90%) is still high; The cycle is 16.9 times (56%) and the consumption is 40.3 times (48%), but it is still not cheap. ④ According to the profit distribution law of each quarter over the years, the net profit of q2-q4 in a single quarter is expected to be – 4.0% / – 3.9% / – 14.2% year-on-year for all a, and – 20.5% / – 15.4% / – 32.7% for all a (non-financial). Without considering the high fluctuation of Q4, Q2 is the low point of profit growth in the whole year, but the rebound in the second half of the year is limited.
Risk warning: global epidemic spread risk and vaccine effectiveness; Macroeconomic growth is less than expected; Inflation soared sharply in the short term and monetary policy tightened rapidly; Historical experience does not represent the future.
