The introduction of new regulations on individual pensions will lead to the next step in system construction. China has initially set up a three pillar pension system to adapt to “Chinese characteristics”, but the characteristics of “one dominant” are significant, and the development of the three pillars is uneven. Changes in the social environment and population structure put forward reform needs for the existing pension system, and the development of the third pillar individual pension is the “top priority” at present. On April 21, 2022, the State Council issued the opinions on promoting the development of individual pension, which stipulates that the account system will be the core operation mode of individual pension. At the same time, it also reformed the different links of payment, investment and receiving.
The subscription heat of the current four personal pension products is different, and the development of the National Pension Company on the product side is the follow-up focus. Pension financing is more popular in personal pension products because the public has a high degree of awareness of such products and the characteristics of risk return are more in line with the public’s “appetite”; The operation of pension target fund is stable and good, and the market recognition is increasing day by day; Exclusive commercial endowment insurance has obvious advantages in serving Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) , employees of new business types and flexible employees; As the first individual pension product launched, tax deferred commercial pension insurance has greatly reduced the insurance expectation, mainly because the detailed design of tax advantages in payment and receiving is not ideal. The subsequent innovation of personal pension products may focus on the national pension company integrating banking, insurance and securities background, especially its unique commercial pension plan business.
The United States, Japan, Germany, Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia have successfully established relatively perfect pension systems with their own characteristics, which can be used for reference in varying degrees for the development of personal pension in China. Among them, the pension systems in the United States and Canada are relatively developed in terms of two or three pillars. Under the background of two-way benign interaction with the capital market, mechanism and product innovation are important drivers for the development of individual pension; In terms of the structure of the pension system, Britain and Australia, both belonging to the Commonwealth, rely more on the second pillar occupational pension, and the proportion of individual pension is relatively low; Japan and Germany are very similar to China, and they also relied heavily on public pillars in their early years. However, in order to meet the changes of social environment and population structure, both countries carried out individual pension reform at the beginning of the 21st century, which has also produced some results. See the text for specific analysis.
A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step: when China’s third pillar is developing. Generally speaking, the current market research on China’s third pillar generally aims at the U.S. market, but in fact, in terms of the development of China’s capital market and national risk preference, we are far from the United States, while Japan and Germany may be more suitable for reference in terms of aging, national risk preference, capital market and pension system deeply dependent on the first pillar. Looking to the future, if we use the development process of Japan’s third pillar to predict the future development of China’s personal pension, the improvement of the third pillar is expected to bring more than trillion incremental funds and 100 billion level “fresh blood” to the stock market, which is conducive to strengthening the benign interaction with the capital market and reflecting the ballast role of pension on the capital market; Bring new wealth to financial institutions; Effectively support the development of the real economy.
Risk warning: the promotion of personal pension is not as expected; The degree of aging is increasing; Macroeconomic downside risks.
