① the worst time has passed, and the epidemic situation and policies point to a short-term sharp decline, and the pressure is relieved. At the end of April, there were intensive party and government meetings, with the core pointing to seeking stability under the bottom line thinking, rather than stimulation. ② Real estate, capital market and platform economy are all placed under the key risk items of management and control, with the marginal slowing down and holding the bottom line of no systemic risk. ③ The current valuation level of A-Shares is in the range corresponding to the absolute bottom of previous bear markets, which is no longer the core contradiction. ④ The core contradiction is whether the kill valuation will turn into kill performance. The growth rate of net profit attributable to parent company of all a / all a (non-financial) in Q1 is 3.6/8.2%. We expect the annual growth rate to be - 2.2% / - 10.2% under neutral assumption and - 8.5% / - 20.3% under pessimistic assumption. ⑤ Whether the actual performance will be further killed depends on the high-frequency data tracking after the resumption of work and production, including logistics, production boom, recovery of Keqiang index and PMI. ⑥ Infrastructure construction has become an important starting point for steady growth, stabilizing the economy and employment in the short term, and making up for security shortcomings in the medium and long term. There are three key perspectives: national security, the central and western regions, and central enterprises. ⑦ National security theme configuration: infrastructure Networking: power grid, oil and gas pipeline network, water transportation network, transportation network, urban disaster prevention and mitigation facilities; Agricultural short board: seed industry, farmland and agricultural machinery; Digital Economy: government informatization, cloud computing and information creation.
Text summary
At the end of April, there were intensive party and government meetings, with the core pointing to seeking stability under the bottom line thinking, rather than stimulation. ① The economic growth target of 5.5% will not be abandoned, but there is room behind the expression of "strive to achieve". ② The policy is not a strong stimulus. The policy redundancy under the goal orientation may be reserved to deal with greater uncertainty. ③ Infrastructure construction has become an important starting point for steady growth. ④ Real estate, capital market and platform economy are all placed under the key risk items of management and control, with the marginal slowing down and holding the bottom line of no systemic risk.
The worst moment has passed, and the epidemic situation and policies point to a short-term sharp decline, and the pressure is relieved. ① The previous pessimistic market expectations mainly came from the closure and control of economic clusters such as the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta caused by the epidemic, the shutdown of enterprises and the obstruction of logistics. The annual economic growth target of 5.5% set by the two sessions is under great pressure. ② At present, there are marginal improvements in the two main repressive factors in the market.
Static valuations are located at the bottom of the bear market, which is no longer the core contradiction. ① At present, the valuation level of A-Shares has been in the range corresponding to the absolute bottom of previous bear markets. Since 2005, there have been seven bear market bottoms. The central value of all A-share PE (TTM, overall method, the same below) is 12 ~ 22 times, and at present (4 / 29, the same below) is 16 times; ② Pb (LF, the whole method, the same below) is 1.4 ~ 2.1 times of the central and 1.5 times of Pb, which is close to the lower edge of the bottom range of previous bear markets.
The core contradiction is whether to turn kill valuation into kill performance, which needs high-frequency data tracking. ① In a market where valuations have bottomed out, there are widespread concerns about whether suicide valuations will translate into killing performance. ② We lowered the growth forecast of all a / all a (non-financial) attributable net profit in 2022 to neutral - 2.2% / - 10.2%, pessimistic - 8.5% / - 20.3%. ③ Whether the actual performance will be further killed depends on the high-frequency data tracking, mainly focusing on the vehicle freight logistics index and CCFI comprehensive index related to logistics and production boom. The monthly frequency data Keqiang index is more helpful to judge the economic trend.
Three key perspectives for steady growth of infrastructure: national security, central and western regions and central enterprises. ① The short-term steady growth of infrastructure and employment protection are the necessary layout under the consideration of medium and long-term national security. ② The central and western regions are the core areas for infrastructure development. ③ The main sources of infrastructure funds, including the government, the central government and state-owned capital, can play the greatest role in resource mobilization under special circumstances. Central enterprises are also more in line with the essence of high dividend strategy. The downward pressure on the economy is greater, and the dividend distribution of central enterprises is more certain.
National security theme configuration: infrastructure, agriculture and digital economy. ① Infrastructure networking can be safe: power grid, oil and gas pipeline network, water transportation network, transportation network and urban disaster prevention and reduction facilities. ② Agricultural weakness board under food security: seed industry, farmland and agricultural machinery. ③ Digital Economy: there has been a trend change in the policies related to the platform economy. The digital economy provides a new driving force for economic growth, and the platform economy absorbs the employment of college graduates, government informatization, cloud computing and information innovation.
Note: This article refers to 2022 this year and 2021 last year.
Risk warning: global epidemic spread risk and vaccine effectiveness; Macroeconomic growth is less than expected; Historical experience does not represent the future; This paper only makes deduction on the basis of assumptions, and relevant companies do not take any investment suggestions.
