Zhou viewpoint
This week (April 25-april 29), the market staged a V-shaped rebound. The 429 Politburo meeting consolidated the policy bottom and boosted market confidence. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down - 1.29% in the week, and the gem index closed up 0.98% this week due to the strong rebound. From the perspective of the industry, building decoration (+ 4.09%), power equipment (+ 2.37%), building materials (+ 1.06%), food and beverage (+ 0.69%) and household appliances (+ 0.64%) led the increase, with the main line of steady growth and post epidemic recovery dominant; Textile and clothing (- 9.90%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (- 7.08%) and light industrial manufacturing (- 5.72%) decreased significantly.
In May, A-Shares oversold and rebounded, but the reversal still needs to be observed. The inflection point of the epidemic and the meeting of the Political Bureau repaired market sentiment, and the oversold rebound in May is expected. However, the internal economy is still at the bottom, the profit of A-Shares is still under pressure, the economic bottom and profit bottom have not yet appeared, and the effect of steady growth needs to be observed; Although the external GDP of the United States in the first quarter was the worst since the outbreak, it was more due to the correction of the base and data, and the endogenous driving forces such as investment and consumption remained strong. In this context, the probability of market sentiment will be repeated and difficult to reverse.
The overall profit continued to fall, and the cycle and consumption were relatively dominant. In the economic downturn cycle, the performance of A-Shares is under pressure, but the highlights remain. From the data of the annual report and the first quarterly report, the overall performance of A-Shares continued to decline, and the risk of killing performance is still worthy of vigilance, especially the risk that the performance of high-level theme stocks is lower than expected. However, there are also some highlights. The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company in the cycle continues to lead, and the profit growth margin of some consumer sectors has improved.
The performance support of the Chinese version of "faanmg" is strengthened and the configuration value is highlighted. The core contradiction of "internal stagnation and external inflation" has not changed. Looking at inflation from the outside, steady growth and post epidemic recovery from the inside. The annual report and the first quarterly report verify the configuration value of the Chinese version of "faanmg".
Risk tips
(1) macroeconomic downturn accelerated
(2) the policy is not as expected
(3) large scale outbreak of geo conflict
