Key investment points:
I. overseas markets: the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates promotes the rise of US bond interest rates. Before inflation eases, the Federal Reserve will still maintain the hawkish monetary policy. The interest rate meeting in May will probably raise interest rates by 50bp and start to shrink the table. At present, the market has included more expectations for the rate increase of the Federal Reserve, and there is the possibility of raising interest rates by 50bp in June and July. The expectation of monetary tightening pushed the US bond yield upward. Recently, the 10-year US bond yield once exceeded 3%, and the US 10-year tips yield rose above zero. In the future, the US dollar index may fluctuate at a high level, and the RMB is expected to fluctuate flexibly and depreciate moderately after a short-term rapid depreciation.
Second, the resumption of work and production in Shanghai has been promoted in an orderly manner, and the stage with the greatest impact of the epidemic is gradually passing. Six districts in Shanghai have basically cleared their social aspects, the resumption rate of the first batch of "white list" enterprises has exceeded 80%, and the second batch of 1188 "white list" enterprises have been released. China's supply chain has gradually recovered, and the national vehicle freight flow index and the throughput index of distribution centers of major express enterprises have rebounded. The follow-up epidemic prevention and control policies and measures will continue to be adjusted and improved, more scientific and accurate, smooth transportation channels, ensure the smooth operation of the industrial chain and supply chain, and avoid strong interference with the economy.
III. the Politburo meeting boosted market confidence and consolidated the "policy bottom" of a shares. The Politburo meeting in April pointed out that efforts should be made to achieve the expected objectives of economic and social development throughout the year, reflecting the policy's determination to stabilize growth and expectations. The important focus of steady growth is on three aspects: 1) comprehensively strengthen infrastructure construction, and accelerate investment and construction in subdivided fields such as transportation, energy and water conservancy; 2) Policies to promote consumption will be strengthened, industries with special difficulties will continue to enjoy relief dividends, and policies related to promoting automobile, household appliance consumption, county and township consumption and new consumption are expected to be introduced; 3) The real estate market continues to be regulated by urban policies.
IV. after the centralized release of pessimistic expectations, the cost performance of A-share allocation appeared. Since April, the valuation level of A-Shares has dropped significantly and is currently at a historical low. As of April 29, the P / E ratio of wandequan a (excluding finance, petroleum and petrochemical) is 25% since 2010; From the perspective of A-share equity risk premium, wandequn AERP rose to 3.38%, which is above the average + double standard deviation since 2010, and has medium and long-term allocation value.
V. investment strategy: in the bottom period, don't be pessimistic below 3000 points. Since April, China's epidemic, supply chain impact and lack of confidence in steady growth have suppressed market risk appetite. After the concentrated release of pessimistic expectations, the valuation level of A-Shares fell back to an all-time low. At present, the allocation cost performance of the equity market gradually appears. There is no need to be pessimistic when the Shanghai stock index is below 3000 points. The Politburo meeting made it clear that the general tone of the policy of steady growth will continue. In the follow-up, with the improvement of the epidemic situation in China, the optimization of epidemic prevention and control, and the continuous efforts of policies in infrastructure, consumption, real estate and other fields, the stage with the greatest impact of the epidemic is gradually passing, and the market sentiment is expected to be repaired. In the market style of May, the blue chip sector with high dividend and value is recommended. Specific to the industry, pay attention to two main investment lines: first, those benefiting from stable growth policies, such as "banking, real estate and building materials"; Second, some consumer goods benefiting from the marginal improvement of China's epidemic situation, such as "food and beverage".
Risk warning: geo risk escalation; The policy strength is less than expected; Repeated outbreaks; Large fluctuations in overseas markets, etc.
