Event:
A-share listed companies have successively released the financial report of 2021 and the report of the first quarter of 2022.
Key investment points:
Quarterly performance: the performance of revenue and profit is lower than that of last year, and the growth difference is rapidly enlarged
In 2021, A-share listed companies achieved a total operating revenue of 64.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%. In the first quarter of 2022, the total operating revenue was 16.43 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.40 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%. The revenue and profit performance in the first quarter were worse than that of last year, and the growth difference between the two was rapidly enlarged mainly due to the following aspects: (1) affected by the continuous upward price of raw materials, the overall gross profit margin (1-operating cost / total operating revenue) fell by 3 percentage points to 32% compared with the first quarter of last year, and the sales gross profit margin fell by 0.5 percentage points; (2) Compared with the annual report, the asset impairment loss turns from negative to positive, while the net income from changes in fair value turns negative; (3) Taxes and surcharges, R & D expenses and other items increased rapidly.
Industry comparison: increased differentiation and bright performance of upstream cycle
While the overall revenue and profit differentiation intensifies, the imbalance between hot and cold in different industries is also quite significant. In the first quarter of 2022, there were 10 industries with year-on-year decline in revenue and 17 industries with year-on-year negative growth in profit. Specifically, the primary industries with a growth rate of more than 10% of the parent net profit in the first quarter include non-ferrous metals, coal, power equipment, transportation, basic chemical industry, medicine and biology, petroleum and petrochemical, food and beverage, national defense and military industry, textile and clothing, household appliances, building decoration and communication industries, which are mostly concentrated in the upstream cycle sector related to price rise and some growth and consumer industries. The growth industries with relatively high performance in the secondary industry classification focus on the sectors related to new energy, electronics, medicine, national defense and military industry. It can be seen that these sub sectors are currently in a high boom range.
Strategic view: focus on defense and lay out the main lines of steady growth, anti inflation and dilemma reversal
(1) most of the industries with "stable economic growth" and "low marginal growth" will become the main line of "stable economic growth", and most of the industries with "low marginal growth" will become the main line of "stable economic growth"; (2) Anti inflation main line: on the one hand, the rise in the price of raw materials has brought down the gross profit margin; On the other hand, it also makes the upstream cycle sector show the double growth of revenue and profit as a whole. At present, inflation in Europe, America and other countries is still at a high level, and the commodity sector industry may continue. (3) The main line of dilemma reversal: we can pay attention to the sharp decline in profits and the improvement of expected social services, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, public utilities, commerce and retail, automobile and other industries.
Risk tips
The Fed raised interest rates more than expected; The steady growth policy is less than expected; Repeated outbreaks; The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued.
