Main views of overseas markets in one week: most global markets still maintain high wave dynamics this week, and the technical bear market trend of most global markets is strengthened at this stage. Affected by the sharp decline of US GDP data in the first quarter and inflation, the volatility of US stock market intensified this week, and S & P 500vix rose 18.4% to 33.4%. The volatility of core assets in a number of US stocks continued to increase. This week, Tesla and Amazon retreated by more than 13%, and Naifei fell by more than 11%. This week, US technology stocks continued to fluctuate, and the risk of value stocks further increased. Among them, S & P 500 non essential consumption, S & P 500 real estate and S & P 500 finance fell by 7.98%, 5.66% and 4.59% respectively this week; It is worth noting that there has also been a significant correction in the US stock defense industry. The required consumption of S & P 500 utilities and S & P 500 has been adjusted by 4.1% and 2.08% respectively this week. Considering that the valuation level of US stocks is still high at this stage, the US bond yield curve has been inverted, the US economy is still under great pressure of stagflation, and the monetary policy of the federal reserve tends to be further tightened, it is expected that the US stock market will fluctuate for some time in the future. The market of most European economies continued to fluctuate this week. Given that the European market is vulnerable to the linkage of the US stock market and the tightening liquidity of the European Central Bank, it is expected that there will be further fluctuations in the European market in the future. From the perspective of emerging markets, considering that the liquidity of the Federal Reserve is in the tightening stage, it is expected that the stock markets of most emerging markets will still fluctuate sharply in the future, such as ibovespa in Brazil, mxx in Mexico, Merval in Argentina, South Korea composite index, sensex30 in India, Manila composite index, Ho Chi Minh index and other emerging market indexes will be further adjusted, and many overseas emerging markets will face triple pressure from the stock bond exchange market. This week, the Hong Kong stock market showed an oversold rebound. Boosted by the policy, the Hang Seng technology index, which fell sharply in the early stage, rebounded significantly in the last trading day of this week. It is expected that there will be a trend of oversold rebound and repeated shocks in the process from the bottom seeking stage to the new round of right market of Hang Seng technology, and the trend stage of Hang Seng technology at this stage is obviously different from the new round of right market, so there is a great possibility of repeated fluctuations; On the other hand, the uncertainty of external objective factors on the stock concept policy will also affect the fluency of the recovery process of Hang Seng technology index to a certain extent from time to time. Considering the industry weight proportion in the Hong Kong stock index at this stage, it is expected that the volatility of Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China enterprise index will still be lower than that of Hang Seng technology index in the future. Considering the valuation advantages and good resilience of fundamentals, the medium-term volatility of Hang Seng H-share financial industry is expected to be lower than that of most industries; Among them, the index of Hong Kong stock banks has good toughness, especially the volatility of large state-owned banks represented by the four major behaviors is relatively small. Considering the current capital construction cycle and economic cycle, it is expected that the construction project will have a certain toughness in the medium term; Among them, large state-owned infrastructure related enterprises have good toughness, and the related beneficiaries are China’s transportation construction, China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) etc.
Performance of US stock market in one week: all three major US stock indexes fell this week. The S & P 500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones industrial index fell by 3.27%, 3.93% and 2.47% respectively.
Performance of Hong Kong stock market in one week: Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China enterprise index and Hang Seng technology index all rose this week, with increases of 2.18%, 4.68% and 11.76% respectively; The Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese enterprises index fell by 0.52%.
Important overseas economic data: the GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter of this year was – 1.4% month on month, compared with the previous value of 6.9%.
Risk tip: the Fed’s monetary policy exceeded expectations; Economic growth is less than expected; The intensification of global geopolitical risks; Overseas epidemic control is less than expected; Global black swan event.
