Next week (may 5-May 7) financial concerns:
(1) the maturity of reverse repurchase is 60 billion yuan;
(2) the net payment of government bonds was 8.2 billion, lower than the net payment of government bonds of 376 billion this week;
(3) the maturity of interbank certificates of deposit was 175.8 billion, higher than that of this week's interbank certificates of deposit of 479.6 billion.
Open market situation this week (April 25 to April 29) and next week
This week, the central bank achieved zero net investment, of which the investment scale of 7-day reverse repurchase was 50 billion and the maturity scale was 50 billion.
Next week (from May 5 to May 7), the maturity of 7-day reverse repo will total 60 billion yuan.
Changes in money market interest rates this week
This week (from April 25 to April 29), the main capital interest rate generally rose, with dr001 rising 48bp to 1.79%, dr007 rising 37bp to 2.01%, R001 rising 51bp to 1.88%, R007 rising 12.2bp to 2.03%, gc001 rising 13.4bp to 1.85% and gc007 falling 18.6bp to 1.84%.
The issuing interest rate of inter-bank certificates of deposit generally declined. The interest rate of one-month Cd increased by 10bp to 2.23%, the interest rate of three-month CD decreased by 12bp to 2.15%, the interest rate of six-month CD decreased by 6BP to 2.51%, and the interest rate of one-year CD (stock bank) decreased by 8bp to 2.42%.
The average daily turnover of inter-bank pledged repo this week was 5146 billion yuan, an increase of 18.8 billion yuan over last week. Among them, the average daily turnover of R001 was 4299.4 billion yuan, accounting for an average of 82.5%, and the average daily turnover of R007 was 572.3 billion yuan, accounting for an average of 12.3%.
This week, the average daily turnover of the repurchase of new pledged treasury bonds on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 1376.9 billion yuan, an increase of 16.3 billion yuan over last week, of which gc001 turnover was 1136.7 billion yuan, accounting for 82.8%, and gc007 turnover was 797 billion yuan, accounting for 11.4%.
Weekly tracking of interbank certificates of deposit
This week, major interbank certificates of deposit issued 233.3 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 261.6 billion yuan. Compared with last week (major banks issued 564.4 billion yuan, with a net financing of 193.5 billion yuan), the issuance scale and net financing amount decreased compared with last week. Among them, urban commercial banks and one-year issuing banks have the largest scale, and the success rate of state-owned banks is the highest.
The yield of interbank certificates of deposit decreased, and the yield of three-month and AA interbank certificates of deposit decreased the most. From the perspective of issuing interest rates of different banks, the interest rate of certificates of deposit of urban commercial banks decreased the most this week.
In terms of term spread, the interest spread between urban commercial banks and joint-stock banks narrowed by 11bp to 31bp this week. The interest spread of each term has been higher than the 50% quantile spread level since 2017, and the fluctuation of grade spread is relatively small. In addition, the "1-year certificate of deposit - 1-year MLF" interest margin of the stock bank decreased by 2bp to - 45bp, the "1-year certificate of deposit - 10-year national debt" interest margin of the stock bank decreased by 4bp to - 44bp, the interest margin between the 1-year certificate of deposit of the stock bank and R007 decreased by 14bp to 37bp, and the interest margin between the 1-year certificate of deposit of the stock bank and R001 decreased significantly by 52.7bp to 52.5bp.
Risk warning: policy uncertainty; Economic fundamentals exceeded expectations.
