Liquidity: the growth rate difference of m1m2 in March was – 0.5 percentage points to – 5% month on month. (1) The value of BCI financing environment index in March 2022 was 46.18, a month on month (- 10.23%), and the high probability of periodic high point has appeared at the end of September 2020 (54.02). According to historical experience, this is not good for the medium and long term of gem index; (2) There is a strong positive correlation between the growth difference between M1 and M2 and the Shanghai Composite Index: the growth difference between M1 and M2 was – 5.0 percentage points in March 2022 and – 0.50 percentage points month on month.
Infrastructure and real estate chain: the operating rate of petroleum asphalt fell to a new low level in six years. (1) Price changes this week: thread – 1.38%, cement price index – 1.57%, rubber – 3.86%, coke + 0.00%, coking coal + 0.00%, iron ore – 3.23%; (2) This week, the national blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, petroleum asphalt and all steel tire operating rate were + 0.22pct, -4.74pct, -3.50pct and -4.12pct respectively.
Low profit chain of flat glass and white powder completed in the same period. (1) The prices of titanium dioxide and glass were + 0.00% and – 1.14% month on month respectively this week; (2) This week, the profit of titanium dioxide was 647 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of – 28.43%, and the gross profit of flat glass was 172 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of – 32.02%.
Industrial product chain: in April, the PMI new order index fell to a new low since March 2020. (1) Price performance of major bulk commodities this week: the prices of cold rolling, copper and aluminum changed by – 0.88%, – 1.34%, – 4.54% month on month, and the corresponding gross profit changed by + 2.81%, – 0.54%, – 24.63%; (2) This week, the operating rate of semi steel tire in China was 65.77%, with a month on month ratio of – 1.62 percentage points; (3) In April 2022, the PMI new order index was 42.60%, with a chain comparison of – 6.2 percentage points.
Breakdown varieties: the gross profit of steel and electrolytic aluminum industry decreased by 9.58% and 24.63% respectively. (1) Graphite electrode: the ultra-high power is 26000 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of + 1.96%, and the comprehensive gross profit is 428473 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of + 1.60%; (2) Nickel: the price this week was 238500 yuan / ton, down from – 2.33% last week; (3) Prebaked anode: the price this week is 7100 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of + 0.00%; (4) The price of electrolytic aluminum is 20810 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of – 4.54%, and the estimated profit is 2680.7 yuan / ton (excluding tax), a month on month ratio of – 24.63%; (5) The comprehensive gross profit of the iron and steel industry was 263 yuan / ton, down from – 9.58% last week; (6) The price of molybdenum concentrate is 2820 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 0.70%.
Price comparison relationship: the price difference of cold and hot rolling is 660 yuan / ton, which is at the highest level in the same period of 6 years. (1) The price ratio of thread and iron ore was 5.24 this week; (2) The price difference between hot coil and rebar this Friday is – 30 yuan / ton; (3) This week, the price difference between cold rolled steel and hot rolled steel in Shanghai reached 660 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 110 yuan / ton; (4) The price ratio of electrolytic nickel in stainless steel hot rolling is 0.09; (5) The price difference between coil screw (mainly used in real estate) and rebar (mainly used in infrastructure construction) reached 220 yuan / ton on Friday, up + 10.00% from last week; (6) The price difference of rebar between Xinjiang and Shanghai was 80 yuan / ton on Friday.
Export chain: in April, China’s PMI new export orders were -5.6pct to a new low since June 2020. (1) The CCFI composite index of China’s export container freight rate index was 309685 points this week, with a month on month ratio of – 0.42%; (2) This week, the utilization rate of crude steel production capacity in the United States was 81.70%, a month on month increase of + 0.80 percentage points; (3) In April, China’s PMI new export orders were 41.6%, with a chain comparison of -5.6pct.
Valuation quantile: this week’s CSI 300 index was + 0.07%. Cement manufacturing (+ 2.25%) had the best performance in the cyclical sector. The quantile of Pb ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to Pb in Shanghai and Shenzhen (since 2013) were 31.99% and 67.13% respectively; The ratio of Pb in Pu steel sector to Pb in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is currently 0.502, and the highest value since 2013 is 0.82 (reached in August 2017).
Investment suggestion: Recently, the national development and Reform Commission has made it clear that the crude steel output in 2022 will decline year-on-year, and the supply contraction expectation of the iron and steel industry will increase. Under the superposition of the expectation of steady growth, the expectation of improving the fundamentals of the iron and steel industry will increase. It is suggested to pay attention to Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Xinjiang Ba Yi Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600581) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) ; The price of prebaked anode is at the highest level since 2017. It is recommended to pay attention to Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) .
Risk warning: the risk of correlation failure based on historical data; The risk of government regulation of commodity prices; Risk of poor management of the company.
