Basic conclusion
As of April 30, the A-share company has released its 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022. According to our statistics, among the 537 consumer companies, 273 companies had positive year-on-year growth in annual revenue and net profit attributable to parent companies in 2021, accounting for 50.84%; In 2022, there were 196 companies with positive year-on-year growth of revenue and net profit in Q1, accounting for 36.5%.
Since the second half of the year, affected by the spread of the epidemic in many places across the country, travel and consumption scenes in peak seasons have been limited, and catering and offline retail closely related to travel have been greatly impacted, dragging down the overall social zero performance. In addition, since the second half of last year, the cost of raw materials, energy and shipping costs have jumped rapidly and remained high, putting pressure on the profits of consumer enterprises. Looking at the financial report of the whole consumption sector, it shows several characteristics as a whole: first, the overall income of the consumer industry did not increase profits in 21 years, and 22q1 improved month on month. The epidemic situation and cost jump, combined with the impact of the downward period of the pig cycle and the base, the revenue of the whole consumer industry increased by about 14% year-on-year in 2021, better than 3% of the previous year; However, the net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 26% year-on-year (an increase of 10% in the previous year), mainly due to the 94% year-on-year decline in 21q4 net profit; In 22q1, the overall revenue of consumption increased by 3% year-on-year, and the net profit decreased by 21% year-on-year, with great improvement month on month. From the perspective of subdivided industries, it is mainly dragged down by agriculture, commercial retail and social services, and the prosperity of food and beverage is on the rise. 2、 Segment leaders show better profitability and toughness. Leading companies rely on their own brand influence and cost control ability to make their gross profit margin, net profit margin, inventory turnover rate, gross sales difference and other performance levels higher than the average of subdivided industries. 3、 High end consumption is better than mass consumption. 4、 The prosperity of different segments is differentiated, with Baijiu, dairy products, air and ice washing and brand cosmetics leading in prosperity. From the revenue and net profit of different sub categories, the prosperity of each sector is differentiated. Baijiu & dairy products in food and beverage, empty ice washing in household appliances, and brand cosmetics & medical consumables in beauty care are still in the industry boom track, with relatively high year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit; The demand side of the subdivided categories of cooked food, home textiles, jewelry, etc. is relatively prosperous, the travel and logistics are limited under the control of the epidemic, and the performance of 22q1 is dragged down; Other categories, such as beer and quick freezing, are under great pressure from the cost side. We will see the improvement of the profit side after the epidemic.
Investment suggestions:
It is suggested to focus on three main lines: first, the main line of the epidemic (divided into two categories). The impact of the epidemic is small, and it continues to prosper after the epidemic, such as dairy products, Baijiu, Baidian and brand cosmetics; The epidemic was damaged and the bottom rebounded, such as catering, food and beverage (catering supply chain), gold jewelry, medical and beauty services, outdoor supplies and clothing, as well as small kitchen appliances affected by logistics express. 2、 Inflation expectations. The production capacity continues to be reduced, and the pig breeding sector is expected to reverse at the bottom of the pig price cycle in the middle or second half of the year; In the mass consumer goods sector, where the price increase has been basically completed under the background of rising costs, we are optimistic about the companies with brand advantages, strong cost control ability, strong industry mandatory attributes and upward prosperity. 3、 The bottom of the policy may be clearer, and the valuation of Hong Kong stock Internet companies is expected to be repaired. The Internet industry was greatly affected by policy supervision in the early stage, superimposed with the impact of the epidemic. At present, the valuation of the head company is at a historically low level. On April 29, the Politburo meeting proposed to introduce specific measures to support the standardized and healthy development of the platform economy. In addition to the restart of the game version in the early stage, we believe that the policy bottom of the Internet industry may be clearer, and there will be upward marginal improvement in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to the valuation repair opportunities of Hong Kong stock Internet companies.
Risk tips:
The risk of covid-19 epidemic lasting for a long time, the risk that the cost remains high and the sales volume is lower than expected, the risk of deterioration of the competition pattern, the risk of the epidemic impacting the supply chain and the transfer of export orders.
