Risk tips
The emergence of new lithium technologies has led to a significant release of supply. At present, the mainstream lithium extraction technologies are ore lithium extraction, salt lake lithium extraction and mica lithium extraction. The development of new technology clay lithium extraction may lead to a significant release of supply. Sonora project is located in Sonora state, Mexico. Its lithium extraction process has the advantages of ore lithium extraction and salt lake lithium extraction. It can not only complete the lithium extraction process in a short time at the speed of similar ore lithium extraction, but also complete the lithium extraction at a lower cost at the cost of similar brine lithium extraction.
New mines will accelerate exploration and mining and accelerate the release of supply. The profits of the lithium industry chain are transferred upstream, driving mining enterprises to accelerate the exploration, construction and mining of mines. The production progress may be advanced and the release of supply may be accelerated.
High prices reverse demand, and downstream demand such as electric vehicles does not meet expectations. At present, the price of lithium salt has reached about 50W, which corresponds to different cost increases in different downstream. Some downstream are highly price sensitive, and the continuous high price may stabilize the demand.
Real estate demand risk. It takes a certain time for the real estate policy to stimulate the actual release of demand. According to historical experience, it takes at least 1-2 quarters. It does not rule out that the demand transmission caused by insufficient policy stimulus is not obvious.
The prices of iron ore and other bulk raw materials continue to face upward risks. The supply of iron ore probably exceeded the demand in the whole year of 22 years, but it does not rule out the possibility that some risk events led to the release of new iron ore supply that did not meet the expectation.
