Strategic view
On the last trading day before the festival, the three major stock indexes of Shanghai and Shenzhen were mainly sorted out in the morning. The news of the heavy noon meeting came that the index rose from the ground in the afternoon, the Shanghai Stock Index successfully recovered the 3000 mark, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) volume rose, helping the gem index to close at its intraday high. As of the close, the Shanghai stock index rose 2.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.69%, the gem index rose 4.11%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 2.43%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 rose 1.29%, and the China Stock Exchange 500 rose 3.86%. The net inflow of northbound funds was 4.246 billion yuan, with an average net inflow of 111 million yuan last week and a net outflow of 637 million yuan the previous trading day. The turnover of the two cities was 965290 billion yuan, with an average value of 797746 billion yuan last week and 840695 billion yuan the previous trading day. The volume of A-Shares rose sharply, and the enthusiasm of market trading was ignited. This meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee was the first meeting of the Political Bureau with the theme of economic work in the year. Under the background of the increased risk challenges caused by the covid-19 pneumonia epidemic and the Ukrainian crisis, the complexity, severity and uncertainty of China's economic development environment and the new challenges of stabilizing growth, employment and prices, it has not changed the annual economic growth target of 5.5%, Basically eliminated the market's concerns about China's economic fundamentals. If the annual economic growth is estimated at 5.5%, the year-on-year growth rate of China's GDP in the first quarter of this year is 4.8%, which means that the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the next three quarters should reach 5.7%. After the impact of the multi-point epidemic on the economy in April, if the economic growth rate in the second quarter of this year is lower than expected, it means that in order to maintain the annual growth target of about 5.50%, the follow-up central level will continue to strengthen macro policy adjustment to stabilize the economy. The market should not underestimate the central government's determination to stabilize growth.
Stock index futures trading strategy
Viewpoint: the futures price spread continues to narrow, and the short-term index is strong and volatile
(1) on April 29, the positions of if, IH and IC contracts were 227500, 113200 and 353300 respectively, with a change of 3.66%, 4.23% and - 2.47% on a daily basis;
The price difference with the spot trading points of 16.86 and 29.8 on the 16th and 29th of the month, compared with the spot trading points of 16.86 and 29.8 on the 16th and 27th of the month, and the difference between the spot trading points of 16.8 and 27.8 on the 16th and 27th of the month.
Operation suggestion: if2206 mainly throws high and absorbs low, with support level of 3920 points and resistance level of 4050 points
Option trading strategy
Viewpoint: the implied volatility drops again and the index fluctuates at a low level
(1) on April 29, the PCR (positions) of 50ETF option, Huatai 300etf option, harvest 300etf option and 300 stock index option were 0.75, 0.93, 1.02 and 0.7 respectively, of which the PCR values of 50ETF and 300etf options rebounded slightly;
(2) on April 29, the implied volatility of 300etf option and 50ETF option were 21.8% and 20.0% respectively, and the implied volatility of 300etf option and 50ETF option decreased slightly.
Operation suggestion: radical strategy: none at present; Steady strategy: buy a 300etf to buy 4100 options in May and sell a 300etf to buy 4200 options in May at the same time. The maximum return of a single portfolio is 720 yuan and the maximum loss is 280 yuan; Hedging strategy: None
Risk tips
1. Rapid cooling of market transactions; 2 short term panic continued to spread risk factors.
