Abstract: under the impact of the epidemic, PMI data show that demand is weaker than supply, and enterprises passively replenish inventory. However, with the emergence of the inflection point of the epidemic in Shanghai and the force of the steady growth policy, it is expected that the subsequent recovery of demand will drive enterprises into passive destocking.
Under the epidemic, manufacturing PMI fell continuously, and there was great downward pressure on the economy in the second quarter. In April, the PMI of manufacturing industry fell by 2.1 percentage points to 47.4%, which was more than that in March. Both the new order index and the new export order index fell sharply, and the domestic and foreign demand was depressed. New orders are unable to digest the inventory of finished products, and the enterprise's production momentum is insufficient.
Demand is more sluggish than production, and the price of subsequent finished products is expected to fall. The difference between the new order index and the production index fell 1.1 percentage points to - 1.8% month on month, and demand was weaker than supply. The ex factory price index fell, and the price of subsequent finished products is highly likely to fall. The delivery time of suppliers is significantly shortened and the circulation link is smoother.
The outlook of the construction industry fell, and the service industry continued to decline. In April, the PMI of the construction industry fell by 5.4 percentage points compared with that in March, but it is still in the expansion range, which is speculated to be due to the fact that the peak of infrastructure construction in the first quarter has passed. Under the impact of the epidemic, business activities and service industry continued to decline. Comprehensive PMI fell sharply.
Risk factors: the epidemic situation continues to worsen and the policy implementation speed is slow
