As far as the external environment is concerned, in terms of epidemic situation, the number of global daily new cases has soared. Most importantly, in terms of epidemic situation, the number of global daily new cases has further increased significantly, with the highest value exceeding 2.7 million cases / day. The high infectivity of Omicron virus is evident, and the low mortality is further confirmed, Who said "there is no doubt that covid-19 pneumonia will gradually become an endemic epidemic, but it is still in the covid-19 pneumonia pandemic". In terms of economy, although the new non-agricultural employment data of the United States in December 2021 was significantly lower than the market expectation, forming a large contrast with the previous ADP data, while the labor participation rate remained, the unemployment rate further fell below 4%, the working hours and hourly salary level also continued to rise in the same period, and the labor market still showed a situation of short supply; At the same time, the inflation level of the United States reached a new high in December, and the CPI of 7.0% in that month increased by 0.2 percentage points compared with that in November; The double rise of eurozone output index and inflation also shows the strengthening of its economic heat.
In terms of China's environment, in terms of inflation, the year-on-year growth rates of CPI and PPI fell in December. Not only the positive support turned to zero, but also the negative growth of month on month growth also lowered the new rising factors. Among them, food prices were the main drag on the decline of CPI month on month growth, and production materials were the important reason for the decline of PPI month on month growth; Looking ahead, although the tail warping and month on month growth will be stronger than that in December 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in January will still decline slightly; The year-on-year growth rate of PPI will continue to weaken due to tail warping. In terms of credit, although the year-on-year growth rate of social finance and M2 both increased, the structural data are not ideal. The high proportion of bill financing and the significant decline of bill discount interest rate confirm each other, and the sign of insufficient credit demand is particularly obvious. Looking forward, considering the centralized commencement of large projects and the continuous rise of bill discount interest rate, the probability of wide credit is high, In January, while the year-on-year growth rate of social finance and M2 continued to rise, its structure is expected to be optimized.
In terms of high-frequency data, in the downstream, real estate transactions fell again, and the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index continued to rise slowly. In the middle reaches, steel prices fluctuated at a low level, and cement prices continued to decline. Upstream, the low price of thermal coal stabilized, the price of coke and coking coal continued to rise, the price of aluminum in non-ferrous metals increased significantly, the price shock of precious metals weakened, and the price of crude oil reached a new high.
Risk tip: the development of international epidemic situation exceeded expectations
