Production: last week, the year-on-year growth rate of daily consumption of electric coal in 25 provinces across the country further declined, the downstream demand was weak, the gross profit decreased, and the logistics was poor. The decline in the growth rate of steel production expanded, the operating rate of semi steel tire and loom continued to slow down, and the production of chemicals increased steadily. Commodity prices remained volatile this week. The European Union considered imposing an embargo on Russian oil and gas before the end of the year, adding that the decline of US crude oil inventory was higher than expected, the tight supply stopped the decline of oil prices and rebounded, and the price of chemicals remained high and volatile. The slow resumption of work in China, coupled with the rebound of the US dollar, weakened the prices of non-ferrous metals across the board. The shipment of thermal coal improved slightly, and the price stopped falling and stabilized. Rebar social warehouse fell, plant warehouse rose slightly, the decline in apparent demand expanded, steel prices weakened as a whole, iron ore prices continued to decline, but coking coal was still strong. Cement prices continued to decline, glass futures prices weakened and spot prices remained stable.
Demand: affected by the weakening demand and the decline of logistics efficiency caused by the epidemic, the year-on-year decline in passenger car sales expanded in the week of April 23. Last week, real estate sales in 30 cities increased slightly month on month, with a year-on-year decrease of more than 50%. The decline of land transactions expanded, the land premium rate continued to fall, and the ratio of saleable area to inventory sales in the top ten cities continued to rise; The market is optimistic about the release of the backlog demand brought by China's resumption of production after May Day. The BDI index returned to the high point in early April. The freight rate of export containers in Shanghai fell for 15 consecutive weeks, but the US west line rebounded Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices fell as a whole, the bottom of pork rebounded, and most of the main grain prices rose.
Overseas: the number of newly diagnosed covid-19 patients in the world continued to decline. Us Q1 GDP unexpectedly turned negative, but domestic demand remained strong. US durable goods orders in March were better than expected, new home sales fell, consumer spending exceeded expectations, and consumer confidence index rose and fell. Under the influence of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the GDP growth of the eurozone slowed down in the first quarter, but the inflation data remained high. At the beginning of the week, the recession concerns increased, and the US bond interest rate fell for a time, but the FOMC May meeting was approaching. The market was still worried that the Fed would accelerate tightening, and the 10Y US bond rose to 2.93%. The economic differentiation between the United States and Europe made the dollar index break through 103, once reaching a new high since 2003. The three major U.S. stock indexes fell across the board, dragged down by recession concerns and tech earnings.
Risk factors: the policy exceeded expectations.
