The Politburo meeting was held, and the policy may be stronger than expected during the year. PMI data fell as scheduled, and the supply chain of manufacturing industry was blocked.
This week's Politburo meeting was held. In terms of macro policy setting, first, policy setting. In addition to accelerating the implementation of existing policies, the Politburo meeting mentioned that "we should pay close attention to planning incremental policy tools, strengthen contingent regulation, and grasp the advance and redundancy of policies under the guidance of objectives". We believe that the policy adjustment implied in the above statement exceeds market expectations. Second, concrete implementation. The implementation of the steady growth policy still focuses on domestic demand, including infrastructure, consumption, market players, etc. relevant contents have been mentioned in previous meetings, which is basically in line with market expectations.
In addition, the Politburo meeting gave more than expected information. The key lies in real estate and platform economy. For the relaxation of the real estate policy concerned by the market, the tone of the Politburo meeting is "no speculation in housing", "one city, one policy" and "supporting rigid demand", which does not mention the three red lines. We believe that "optimizing the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds" is the characteristic of this real estate policy relaxation, which is different from the previous policy relaxation, or it means that the prevention and resolution of real estate market risks should start with solving the high financial leverage of real estate enterprises. The expression of platform economy is "healthy development". We believe that the action of rectifying the disorderly expansion of capital in the field of platform economy may have achieved phased results.
In terms of data, the PMI data released in April this week decreased as scheduled. The manufacturing PMI index in April was 47.4%, down 2.1 percentage points from March again; The data in April is 3.4 percentage points lower than the level in the same period in three years. The prosperity of manufacturing industry in April is often lower than that at the end of the quarter in March. Superimposed on the fact that China's epidemic prevention situation is still severe, the PMI data in April further weakened. It is worth mentioning that the decline of new orders, production and supplier distribution time in April was large. In addition to the restrictions on demand, the impact of the epidemic on the supply chain was prominent and obvious. The decline of production and supplier distribution time index increased by 4.2 and 7.6 percentage points respectively compared with March. The supply chain problem was the main crux of the decline of manufacturing outlook in April.
Overseas, the United States and Europe released a number of economic data this week. First, the United States has mixed economic data. According to the data of the U.S. Department of Commerce, the initial value of real GDP in the first quarter of the United States decreased by 1.4% month on month, which was the first negative value since the second quarter of 2020. It is expected to increase by 1.1%, and the final annualized value in the fourth quarter of last year increased by 6.9%. From the perspective of structure, inventory change is the main drag on the data in the first quarter. In the growth rate of 6.9% in the United States in the fourth quarter of last year, 5.3% of the contribution comes from the inventory change in the current period. Until the first quarter, this contribution is negative. In other sub items, the pulling effect of private consumption and fixed investment on GDP has improved, and the strong import and weak export may reflect that the supply constraints of the United States and China still exist. In terms of employment data, the data of the U.S. Department of labor showed that as of April 23, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 180000, in line with expectations. The previous value was revised from 184000 to 185000, and the U.S. employment data is still good. In Europe, German inflation hit another 40-year high. According to the data of the German Bureau of statistics on Thursday, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in April rose to 7.8%, higher than the expected 7.6%. In addition, the annual average inflation in Germany in 2022 was raised to 6.1%. The current high inflation may mainly come from energy supply.
Risk tip: global inflation is rising too fast; Liquidity flows back to US debt; The global covid-19 epidemic has expanded its impact.
