Key investment points:
ECI index: as of May 1, 2022, the ECI supply index this week was 49.62%, down 0.02% from last week; The ECI demand index was 48.80%, down 0.13% from last week. In terms of sub items, the ECI investment index was 48.61%, up 0.06% from last week; The ECI consumption index was 48.54%, down 0.32% from last week; The ECI export index was 49.23%, down 0.05% from last week.
Supply side: industrial production was significantly affected by the supply chain in April, and PMI fell sharply compared with March. The PMI data released on April 30 recorded 47.4%, the second lowest since the covid-19 pneumonia outbreak. In terms of specific sub items, the production index is 44.4%, indicating that industrial production has been significantly disturbed, while the supplier delivery time index is only 37.2%. The sluggish supply chain under the influence of the epidemic is the main reason for the sharp slowdown of industrial production.
Demand side: from the high-frequency data, although real estate and automobile sales are still at a low point, the trading volume of construction steel has rebounded significantly, and the opening of the subsequent supply chain will also boost automobile sales. In addition, the export transfer caused by the poor supply chain will gradually return, so the demand side may pick up in the second quarter.
Eli index: as of May 1, 2022, the Eli index was - 1.17% this week, up 0.1% from last week. According to the statement of the central bank in an interview with the financial times on April 26, the structural monetary policy tools aimed at alleviating the weak economic links such as industries seriously affected by the epidemic, small, medium-sized and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households will be gradually implemented in the future, and the monetary and financial conditions faced by the financing of the real economy may continue to be loose.
Risk warning: the uncertainty of epidemic situation is still high; Supply chain recovery is not as expected; Changes in monetary policy were less than expected.
