In March, both manufacturing PMI and non manufacturing PMI fell below the boom and bust line, and both were much weaker than seasonality; In March, new orders fell below the boom and bust line again after a month, and hit a new low in nearly five months, indicating that China needs to deteriorate; In March, new export orders hit a new low in nearly five months, but foreign demand still faces price support; The production in March was much weaker than that of the season, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic and the weakening of expectations; The conflict between Russia and Ukraine pushed up the international oil price and then boosted the commodity price. Affected by this, the purchase price index and ex factory price index of main raw materials in March hit a new high in nearly five months. It is expected that the PPI in March will rise compared with that in February, but the year-on-year probability of PPI in March will decline compared with that in February; The overall performance of PMI employment data in March is poor. It is expected that the urban survey unemployment rate in March may exceed the upper limit of the range of 5.50%. Under this background, the central government has a high probability to increase "steady growth".
The impact of the epidemic on China's economic and social life in an all-round way, including the production side and the demand side, is the main contradiction in China's macro-economy, which is highly valued by the 429 Politburo meeting; The central government has always adhered to the "initial intention" of achieving the GDP growth target of "about 5.50%. May is the key" time window "for steady growth; Under the background of "strengthening macro policy adjustment", the rate of macro policy easing in the second quarter is probably higher than that in the first quarter, and the force of fiscal policy may be more appropriate than that of monetary policy; Under the background that the 11th meeting of the central financial and Economic Commission proposed "taking the responsibility and acting actively", it is expected that the sixth national financial work conference will probably weaken the "lifelong accountability of local government debt"; Capital and expectation are the key to restricting the growth rate of real estate investment. The growth rate of real estate investment must be stabilized to help achieve the GDP growth target of "about 5.50%; The probability of international oil price is under pressure and slightly downward in the second half of the year. It is not ruled out that international food prices may follow this trend.
CPI in March was 1.50% year-on-year, 0.20 percentage points higher than expected, and 0.60 percentage points higher than the previous value. Pork CPI and vehicle fuel CPI increased marginally year-on-year in March, while road control caused by the deterioration of covid-19 epidemic was the main reason for the year-on-year rise of CPI in March; The stock of fertile sows in March is at a relatively high level in history. It is expected that the pork price will not rise significantly in the second quarter, but under the base effect, the year-on-year probability of pork CPI from April to June will rise steadily; From the perspective of "Trisection method", the year-on-year probability of CPI in April fluctuated slightly on the basis of March; Mainly due to the double negative effects of base and tail warping, superimposed on the rise and fall of commodity prices, the year-on-year probability of PPI in April fell on the basis of March, and it is highly likely to enter the "7" era; In April, the probability of ppirm of chemical raw materials and textile raw materials decreased. It is expected that the probability of significant upward trend of international oil price is low, and the probability will decline in the medium term.
PPI accumulated year-on-year at a relatively high level in history, the profit margin of operating income of industrial enterprises improved compared with that in February, and the base decreased significantly in the same period in 2021, jointly pushing up the total profit of industrial enterprises in March year-on-year; From another perspective, the decline in the cumulative value of manufacturing expenses is the main reason for the year-on-year rise in the total profits of industrial enterprises in March. At the same time, the mining industry is an important supporting force for the year-on-year rise in the total profits of industrial enterprises in March; The total profits of coal mining and washing industry recorded a triple-digit growth for 10 consecutive months year-on-year; The profit growth of state-owned and state-controlled enterprises is full of toughness, which is inseparable from the continuous sharp rise in the price of upstream raw materials in 2021, while the performance of foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan enterprises is very weak; In March, the asset liability ratio of industrial enterprises reached a high point since December 2020. On the whole, there was a weak negative correlation between the asset liability ratio of industrial enterprises and the cumulative total profits of industrial enterprises year-on-year; In the short term, industrial enterprises are still in the passive replenishment stage, and will switch to the active destocking stage in the later stage.
The main reason for China's increasingly complex and uncertain geopolitical environment is that China's epidemic situation will escalate more frequently; Since March, unexpected factors outside China have exceeded expectations, and China's macroeconomic operation is facing greater uncertainty and challenges; The 329 standing committee pointed out the need to "strengthen confidence and set targets without relaxation", which clearly expressed the confidence and determination to achieve the GDP growth target of "about 5.50"; Effective investment is the key to achieving the expected goal of GDP growth, and infrastructure investment is the top priority. The focus of infrastructure investment is traditional infrastructure investment, especially water conservancy projects; The main tone of "flexibility and moderation" of monetary policy is maintained at the regular meeting in the first quarter, and the easing rate in the second quarter is expected to exceed that in the first quarter; The interest rate of the first house loan will probably break through 5.22% downward, and the probability of expanding the pilot cities of real estate tax reform in 2023 is low.
