Event:
In December 2021, RMB loans increased by 1.13 trillion yuan, with the previous value of 1.27 trillion yuan; The scale of social financing increased by 2.37 trillion yuan, compared with the previous value of 2.61 trillion yuan; In December, M2 was 9% year-on-year, the former value was 8.5%, and M1 money supply was 3.5% year-on-year, the former value was 3.0%.
Government bonds increased significantly year-on-year, and new RMB loans decreased year-on-year
This month, the year-on-year growth rate of social finance stock recorded 10.3%, which may rise from the bottom. In the social finance sub item, only the new RMB loans increased less year-on-year, and the other sub items increased compared with the same period last year, including government bonds, corporate bonds and domestic stock financing of non-financial enterprises. The substantial year-on-year increase in government bonds is mainly related to the intensive issuance of special bonds; Corporate bonds increased rapidly year-on-year, mainly due to the low base in the same period last year. Although new trust loans and entrusted loans recorded positive growth year-on-year, their performance was lower than expected and both recorded negative values. On the one hand, it was related to the continuous pressure drop of non-standard products. On the other hand, many non-standard products wanted to repay before the end of the transition period of new regulations on asset management. Therefore, the scale of centralized maturity this month was large.
The credit structure is poor and the characteristics of bill offset are obvious
The new RMB loans in December were 1.13 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.13 trillion yuan compared with the previous month, which was mainly caused by the decline in the demand for new RMB loans of residents. The loan of residents in December was 0.37 trillion yuan, nearly half the level of 0.73 trillion yuan compared with the previous month. The decline in residents' credit demand was mainly related to the centralized release of demand in the first two months, and with the centralized release of mortgage demand accumulated in the early stage, Superimposed on the reduction of real estate stimulus policies, the medium and long-term RMB loans of residents are slightly insufficient this month. In addition, Bill offset is another important feature of the credit structure this month. With the decline in the demand for physical financing, the scale of bill financing has increased greatly.
Resident enterprise deposits increased year-on-year, driving the rise of M2
The decline in mortgage demand of residents and the sluggish demand for physical financing led to an increase in deposits of residents and enterprises year-on-year, driving the year-on-year recovery of M2. The year-on-year growth rate of M1 is still low, indicating poor capital activity, which is also related to the current depressed macroeconomic environment.
Looking ahead, the pressure on steady economic growth will not decrease in 2022, but the toxicity of Omicron virus will be reduced or its impact on the steady recovery of global supply chain will be limited. The decline in the price of bulk raw materials will support the improvement of enterprise costs, which may increase its willingness to expand production, which is reflected in the improvement of credit structure, The improvement of household credit structure is closely related to the marginal change of future real estate policy. In addition, the Ministry of finance has issued a special debt limit of 1.46 trillion yuan in advance, and infrastructure investment may be expected next year.
Risk tips
The uncertainty of Omicron virus on the recovery of global supply chain; The policy exceeded expectations.
