The report comments on the PMI data of China's manufacturing industry published every month.
The manufacturing outlook weakened significantly in April
April manufacturing pmi47 4%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, to the lowest level since March 2020.
All the five major classification indicators were lower than the critical point and decreased month on month. Among them, the production index, new order index and supplier delivery time index decreased by more than 5 percentage points.
The decline of PMI in April was significantly greater than that of the season, which was mainly related to the local epidemic: the epidemic in Shanghai continued to operate at a high level, and the number of areas affected by the local epidemic increased, which had a great impact on the production and demand of the manufacturing industry.
Both domestic and foreign demand accelerated to fall
In April, the new order index was 42.6%, down 6.2 percentage points, and the market demand of manufacturing industry accelerated to decline.
External demand: the new export order index was 41.6%, down 5.6 percentage points. Under the influence of the epidemic, some export enterprises stopped production. At the same time, the logistics of some port cities was blocked, and the enterprises encountered difficulties in shipping. Therefore, some overseas orders were transferred to Southeast Asia and other regions. The export data of order transfer effect in Southeast Asian countries have been verified: Vietnam's exports from January to April rose to 16.5% year-on-year; The year-on-year growth rate of exports of Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia in March was more than 20%, significantly higher than that at the beginning of the year.
Domestic demand: the import index was 42.9%, down 4 percentage points.
Production declined significantly and finished product inventory accumulated
The monthly production index was 44.4%, down 5.1 percentage points. Under the influence of the epidemic, enterprises in some areas stopped work and manufacturing production slowed down significantly.
Raw material inventory was 46.5%, down 0.8 percentage points; Finished goods inventory was 50.3%, up 1.4 percentage points. The inventory of raw materials continues to decline and the inventory of finished products continues to rise, reflecting the interference of the logistics supply chain, which has an impact on the sales and purchase of raw materials.
Price growth slowed
In April, the purchase price index of raw materials was 64.2%, down 1.9 percentage points. The ex factory price index was 54.4%, down 2.3 percentage points. The raw materials and ex factory price index ended the rapid upward trend for four consecutive months, and the growth rate of manufacturing prices slowed down.
In April, the overall growth rate of industrial product prices fell slightly. Based on the PMI price breakdown and high-frequency industrial product price data, we expect the PPI in April to fall to around 8.0% year-on-year.
Risk tips
The economy fluctuated more than expected.
